Thursday, November 22, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 12

Favorites took another bite out of the underdog lead in Week 11 by finishing 8-5-1 ATS.  With the Monday game pending, dogs still hold a 86-69-4 overall edge (55.6%).

Week 11 Recap

UPDATE: It was still a 4th straight winning week, but the Bears loss tainted things with a train wreck performance.  Final tally was 3-3 ATS and 5-1 on totals/teasers.

I felt great about having Chicago +7 after the Alex Smith news dropped the line to 3.5.  Yet, what looks good on paper doesn't always translate to the field.  Chicago's offensive play-calling was totally unimaginative.  Even more surprising was the no-show effort by the Bears D.  Gotta give Colin Kaepernick credit though. Great play from the kid.

NFL Picks 2012: Week 12 predictionsPerhaps the most popular pick of the week were the Rams, but the Jets relished the role of spoiler.  In fact they were the only dog to win straight up in Week 11. The Dolphins came up short on Thursday even though they were within a goal post from covering.  That said, they sure didn't look like the right side as they had no business being in that game. At +3 it was more of a value play than anything else, but they continue to fall back to earth with their 3rd bad game in a row.

The Buccaneers cover might be considered lucky, but I thought the refs sparked a 14 point swing with their brutal non-TD call late in the 4th.  I'll take it.

Overall, the hot streak extends to 16-6 ATS, 16-5 on totals, 7-1 on teasers, and 11-8 on props.

Week 12 Picks

Texans vs Lions

Redskins vs Cowboys

Seahawks vs Dolphins

Falcons vs Buccaneers 

Packers vs Giants 

Teasers 

Team Totals & Props

Pending...

Survivor Pick

The top two picks in the poll were the Cowboys and Texans, but both needed to scrape out wins in OT to survive. People who took the Falcons barely survived despite a half dozen turnovers by Matt Ryan and company.  12% went with "other", which might have consisted of some Ravens picks after Big Ben went out?

For Week 12 I took out the Patriots as an option given how few votes they got last week.  TeamRankings rolled with the Falcons in Week 11 and still remain unbeaten.  Check to see what they take later in the weekBeyond the Bets went with the Cowboys and also remain unbeaten this year. 

Survivor Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Week 11: Denver Broncos
Week 10: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 9: Detroit Lions
Week 8: Green Bay Packers
Week 7: San Francisco 49ers
Week 6: Atlanta Falcons
Week 5: New York Giants
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans