Thursday, November 15, 2012

All team totals and props from Pinnacle, 5Dimes, or Bodog.

Team Totals

Dolphins O21

Miami might not be firing on all cylinders lately, but the Bills defense is proving to be every bit inept as they've been all season.  Their rankings on 3rd down and in the red zone are god-awful.  The other potential advantage I like here is the possibility of Fitzpatrick coming out erratic.  They rank near the bottom in turnover differential and it's split pretty evenly between interceptions and fumbles.  The Dolphins defense should be good enough to gain some favorable field position once or twice.

Falcons U27

It's always risky playing "unders" in this league, but this total is a bit inflated.  When you look at what the Cardinals defense has done this year, you'll see that they match up pretty good with Atlanta.  Arizona rank near the top in pass defense and defensive sack rate.   They are also excellent at stalling drives and getting off the field on 3rd down. They are in the top third in red zone defense and they've done all this consistently against a very tough schedule.  Atlanta can put up points in bunches, but they'll have to earn it in this game.

Patriots O31

New England spreads are almost always inflated.  Yet, this Indy defense is atrocious.  They have the worst pass and run defense in the entire NFL and they've put up those stats against a very weak schedule.  Indy's D is average on third down which is encouraging, but they fold when opponents get inside the red zone.  The Patriots rank near the top of every meaningful category on offense and should have no trouble moving the ball on Sunday.  Andrew Luck is up and coming and might have a big game, but he's also shown a bit of a home/road dichotomy.  Turnovers are a concern.

Broncos O28

The Chargers defense isn't horrible, but they do have some glaring weaknesses that make this a great match up for Peyton and company.  San Diego have a crap rating with their pass defense and they are even worse in the red zone.  In fact they rank dead last inside the 20.  The only thing they do well is slow down the run game, but that isn't the bread and butter of Denver's attack.  The Broncos are humming right now and without the ability to pressure Petyon on a consistent basis, it could be a long day for San Diego.

Props

Bush O24.5 rec yards 
Bush O2.5 pass receptions 
R Rice O69.5 rush yards
R Rice O3.5 receptions 
Gore O2 receptions

More Week 11 picks.