Friday, November 9, 2012

NFL Picks 2012: Week 10
Favorites took a huge bite out of the underdog lead in Week 9 going 10-4 ATS. Underdogs still hold the overall edge at 75-55-3 (57.7%), but the gap is closing.  It shouldn't come as a big surprise when you look at all the favorable matchups that were on the board, but I don't think things will be so one-sided in Week 10.  After the weekend adjustments, the opening lines are pretty sharp.

Week 9 Recap

It's another short write-up with the only loss coming from the New York Giants.  This was the one game that had the most disagreement in the polls with 51% on the dog.  Props if you came out on the winning side.  I was a bit surprised at how inefficient the Giants offense was, but full credit to Pittsburgh.

Overall I finished 5-1 ATS and 3-0 on totals.  Despite the slow start, things are beginning to balance out.  There is still half a season to go so there's plenty of time to finish strong.

Week 10 Picks

*Note: The Jets @ Seahawks has the nice combo of off the bye/into the bye that has worked so well this season, but I'm passing on it for the simple reason that the game is in Seattle.  Otherwise, it's a nice edge to consider.

Chargers vs Buccaneers 

Titans vs Dolphins  (updated)

Cowboy vs Eagles 

 Lions vs Vikings

Texans vs Bears 


Team Totals & Props

Survivor Pick

Two sites I've been tracking this year are Beyond the Bets and TeamRankings.  One went with the Chargers and the other the Seahawks.  Both remain undefeated with their survivor picks this season using slightly different strategies.  In week 9 there were no significant upsets so everybody still alive came away unscathed.  For Week 10, my choice was pretty simple.  TeamRankings have full coverage here.

Survivor pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 9: Detroit Lions
Week 8: Green Bay Packers
Week 7: San Francisco 49ers
Week 6: Atlanta Falcons
Week 5: New York Giants
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans