Monday, October 29, 2012

NFL Picks 2012: Week 9 predictions
Underdogs continued their tear by going 8-6 ATS in Week 8, and 71-45-3 ATS (61.2%) on the season.  Naturally, things should regress to the mean, but it's going to be hard for the favorites to bring it down towards the 53-47% range.

The question going forward is whether or not we'll begin to see any value on the favorites?  I would say not much.  I expect the same week to week adjustments that is typical of the NFL.

Week 8 Recap

Not much to review here. I usually save the commentary for the losses, but I went a perfect 5-0 ATS in Week 8.  It's nice to finally have some positive variance work in my favor.  As a bonus, teasers and totals finished 5-2. The Bears came up a half point short on one teaser and the Redskins offense lost a total, but Dick Lebeau has a history of doing that to rookie QB's.

Week 9 Picks

Note*: With so many games hovering around the '3' this week, only buy the half point if you can get it between 10-15 cents (at most).  The standard price of buying on/off the '3' is 23 cents, which is too expensive and a waste of value.  

Buccaneers vs Raiders

Broncos vs Bengals 

Lions vs Jaguars

Bears vs Titans 

Steelers vs Giants

Ravens vs Browns

Team Totals and Props

Survivor Pick

Bears backers (including TeamRankings) had to sweat out Week 8, but if you were one of the few in the poll that went with the Vikings, you picked the wrong week to take a risk.  Packers sure made things interesting, but came through as the heavy choice.

Things begin to get very tricky for Week 9 as win probabilities shrink on the available options. As always, TeamRankings have in-depth analysis here.

Survivor Pick: Detroit Lions

Week 8: Green Bay Packers
Week 7: San Francisco 49ers
Week 6: Atlanta Falcons
Week 5: New York Giants
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans