Sunday, October 28, 2012

NFL Picks 2012: Week 8
Week 7 is in the books and it offered up some interesting results.  Heading into last week, sharps were still gung ho on the underdogs, but they finished 6-6-1 ATS.  That included the bizarre Seahawks cover on Thursday, and the brutal back-door cover by the Lions on Monday.

There's a few more trends that sharps are monitoring closely.  NFC underdogs (against anybody) were on a ridiculous tear, but that didn't continue in Week 7.  Teams heading into a bye week are now 1-13 ATS after eliminating games where both teams are going into a bye.  Also, teams coming off a bye are doing great this season - likely because they all lost going into the bye!

As I said before, I'm not a big "trends" guy, but it's hard to ignore these.  There's at least one obvious game where the trends come into play in Week 8.

Week 7 Recap

If I was a slimy tout, I'd advertise that I went 4-1 on teasers and totals in Week 7 and call it a day.  The problem is that was wiped out by going 0-2-1 ATS on sides.

When I see a guy like Fitzpatrick throw an idiotic INT, followed by a Hasselbeck 4th and 9 conversion for a touchdown to win the game, I can't do anything other than laugh at this point.  I had the Bills -3, and it closed -4.5 so I felt pretty good about that going into Sunday.

The same thing played out in Oakland.  I had them -4, but it closed -6.  It was hard enough watching this game, so recapping it is even more painful.


WagerMinds summed it up perfectly.  I guess I should be surprised that Oakland couldn't cover despite the fact that MJD and Gabbert both got knocked out of the game, but this is the Raiders - led by the turnover machine known as Carson Palmer.

I mention the closing number this week because I take a lot of pride in beating the closing number on a consistent basis.  The problem is it hasn't paid off yet.  In the 28 picks where the number closed at least 1 point off (or a half point off the key number of 3) from the opener, I've got the best of the number in 25 of those picks.  Combined, it equates to 38 extra points of value.  Go figure.

Week 8 Picks

Buccaneers vs Vikings

Giants vs Cowboys

Dolphins vs Jets

Patriots vs Rams

 Falcons vs Eagles

Team Totals & Props

Teasers

Pending...

Survivor Pick

A lot of people (including Beyond the Bets) were holding their collective breath on Sunday once the Jets took the lead in New England.  If they would have lost, I'm sure a fair share of survivor pools would have been clinched in Week 7.  As always, TeamRankings have great coverage each week found here.  For me, this week was the biggest no-brainer since Week 1.

Survivor pick: Green Bay Packers

Week 7: San Francisco 49ers
Week 6: Atlanta Falcons
Week 5: New York Giants
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans