Saturday, October 20, 2012

A few items caught my eye (and ear) this week.

First, Gill Alexander opened the first 10 minutes with a great discussion defining "sharps" and "squares" on Pregame's Week 7 Guessing Lines show.  Good listen.

Second, during the Monday Night Football game, Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders (great follow BTW) tweeted the following,

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Third, roughly 60% of the games have been within one score in the final two minutes. That could explain why so many dogs are covering this season.

In fact, this is the first time in NFL history 40 underdogs have straight up victories after six weeks of a season. A regression to the mean is coming, the only question is when? I don't see any over-adjustment in the Week 7 lines, so it's something worth monitoring.

Week 6 Recap

A 1-3-1 ATS week is in the books. I have no idea if the Broncos or Chargers were the "right" side of that wild MNF game, but after the weekend I had I'll take it.  It also gave me a 1-1 finish on the "best bets" with the team total cover.

I expected more from the Cardinals defense, but I give Buffalo credit for not packing it in. Of all the picks, this is one I'd like to have back.

After the entire scouting world officially declared the Packers offense as "off", Rodgers reminded us all of what he's capable of.  The Texans were force-fed some humble pie and I had a big slice of it, too.  Interestingly, it's the second prime-time game in a row where Houston didn't look like themselves.  Red flag?  Or simply a case of Rodgers being too good?  I have both of these teams in the Super Bowl so I'm not shocked Green Bay won, but I am surprised at how they won.

I could handle those losses, but the one that was tough to stomach was the Patriots pick. I'm not even going to rehash the improbable series of events that led to the non-cover, but that very well could be the last time I ever fade the Seahawks at home. Simply put.  Two snatched wins is enough for me.

Week 7 Picks

Titans vs Bills 

Cardinals vs Vikings

Jaguars vs Raiders


Team Totals & Props

Survivor Pick

If you had the Steelers, Eagles, Cardinals, or 49ers, you joined the other 80-90% of eliminated people on the sidelines. The Falcons were the run-away favorite choice of the week, but they barely pulled off the win (and probably didn't deserve to).  The Bucs were the only other team that saved people this week, but they were the 4th most popular pick in the poll.  If you took your chances on them, I tip my hat to you. Gutsy pick.

Week 7 has some tricky choices on the board, but I'm leaning 49ers right now.  TeamRankings have full in-depth analysis here.

UPDATE: 49ers finished with 13% of the poll, including a vote from me.  Packers and Patriots still leading the way, but Vikings are another sneaky popular pick.

UPDATE #2: Beyond the Bets have locked in their pick for the week, but they've decided to go "safe" (if there is such a thing in this league).  Can they outlast TeamRankings this year?  

Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Week 6: Atlanta Falcons
Week 5: New York Giants
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans