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Friday, October 12, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 6

NFL Picks 2012: Week 6 predictions
Week 5 is officially in the books and we are beginning to see some separation between the top and the bottom. I waited one extra week before I adjusted the power rankings, and those should be out Wednesday or Thursday.  Clearly there are some teams headed in the right direction, while others are fading into irrelevance. Yet, even after 5 weeks there is a big group of teams that defy categorization.  Parity is very much alive and well in the NFL.

Week 5 Recap

Where do I start?  2-3 ATS isn't the end of the world, but I expected better.

The money train on Houston finally came to an end on Monday Night. That was a bummer, but I knew it couldn't last forever. It was also fantastic timing to add a "best bet" on them, only to come up two points short. Sarcasm aside, it would be easy to say "if it wasn't for a special teams TD", but that is likely the one area where the Texans haven't been up to par this year.  Despite the result, I can't say I regret that pick at all.

San Diego is another pick I would do again without any hesitation. It was hard watching them dominate for most of the game, only to let it slip away in the end. Instead of a pick-six to end it, a penalty started a wave of momentum that the Chargers had no answer for.  Rough.

The Broncos on the other hand, were definitely not the right side. They almost got a back-door cover, but they had no right to even have that opportunity given the way the Patriots owned them for three quarters. McGahee's fumble at the end was proper justice for New England backers.

But without a doubt the biggest head-scratcher was the Packers outright loss in Indy. I know Luck and Wayne are good, but to blow a 21-3 halftime lead was a shock. It seems every other week a result like that is blowing up my teasers. Without question, I have an uphill battle in that category.

On the bright side, I went 6-0 with the props.  I'll take it.

Week 6 Picks

Rams vs Dolphins

Bills vs Cardinals

Packers vs Texans

 Patriots vs Seahawks

Broncos vs Chargers

Team Totals/Props


Survivor Pick

For the second week in a row, the vast majority of popular survivor picks took care of business.  The lone exception were the Packers. Almost 20% of the poll went with Green Bay though, so a fair share of people got axed.  I can't say I blame them, since I put GB in both of my teasers.

The Week 6 board is filled with a lot of short favorites, making it slim pickings for choices.  The Falcons are the lone big favorite on the board, and they are at home where Matt Ryan doesn't lose very often.  Is this the week that survivor players go contrarian and hope for a Raiders upset?  That wouldn't be my approach, especially given how bad of a match-up it is for Oakland.  There will be better opportunities ahead to make your move.  Once again, TeamRankings have full in-depth analysis here.

UPDATE: 22.35% of the poll went with the Steelers, which is a bit more than I would've thought.  I know the Titans are horrible, but a short travel road game with injuries?  I've removed their votes from the poll, but voting is still open for the remaining options.

UPDATE #2: People who took a chance on the Steelers paid the price on Thursday.  That was a rough last second loss! Beyond the Bets has updated survivor analysis for Week 6, and they're rolling with the obvious choice.

Survivor Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Week 5: New York Giants
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242