Friday, October 5, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 5

NFL Picks 2012: Week 5 predictions
With a month in the books, it's time to update preseason power rankings and make some firmer conclusions about these teams.  We're still one or two more weeks away from a full foundation of data, but from a statistical point of view there's enough there to see which lines are being inflated and why.

The Packers, 49ers, and Texans are three prime examples for Week 5.  From this point forward, perception is going to play less and less of a role as these lines sharpen up.

Week 4 Recap

I don't think anyone is happier to see October more than me. I've only had two bad months ATS since starting this blog and both of them came in September.  The lesson?  Don't be too aggressive (or overconfident) out of the gate.  This league humbles everyone at some point or another. 

I scaled things back for Week 4 and it really paid off.  I finished 4-1 ATS with the only loss coming from Tampa Bay.  If you're familiar with Josh Freeman, nothing more needs to be said.

The Packers came up one point short for the teasers, but I can handle those kind of losses when I know it was a good pick. Brees is always a threat to put up points, which was the whole point of teasing down to under a field goal.

Also, a small formatting note: I've had some people ask me what pick I like the most. The truth is I love all of my picks or they wouldn't get posted at all.  And when it comes to bet size, I'm very adamant about a "flat-betting" approach.

However, for a bit of fun I'm going to put a "Best Bet" tag beside a pick if I think it merits an extra unit or two.  Most weeks it will be just one, but some weeks it could be two or none at all. 

Week 5 Picks

Falcons vs Redskins

Broncos vs Patriots

Bears vs Jaguars

Chargers vs Saints

 Texans vs Jets

Teasers

Team Totals and Props

Survivor Pick

Half of the Week 4 poll went with the Ravens (including me), but even if you didn't you came away unscathed.  Every listed team won their games outright, although Cardinals, Packers, and Falcons backers had to sweat it out to the bitter end.

There's only about 10% of contestants remaining in most pools, so the upcoming weeks will be increasingly difficult.  I've gone ahead and removed the Texans as an option in the poll since the vast majority of people have already taken them. TeamRankings have full in-depth analysis here.

UPDATE: Beyond the Bets have their updated Week 5 Survivor analysis posted here. Voting isn't closed yet, but the Giants narrowly hold the lead this week.  It also looks like I took out Houston from the poll a bit prematurely as "other" is getting a lot of support.  I'm also a bit surprised at how few people trust the Bears in Jacksonville.

Survivor Pick: New York Giants

Week 4: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans