Friday, October 5, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012 Week 5: Teasers

Quick summaries for the teasers this week.

New York Giants -2.5 & Green Bay Packers -1

Packers

The Colts D would get a nice boost if Pat Angerer can suit up, but right now he appears like a game-time decision.  That usually means he'll be limited even if he can go.  The same goes for Dwight Freeney.  When you consider how different (and aggressive) this Colts scheme is on defense, these two could make them half-decent once they are healthy.

Instead, Rodgers will likely abuse a less-than-impressive Colts secondary.  Mathis is the primary pass rushing threat, but Green Bay should be able to do enough to give Rodgers more than enough time to pick things apart.  Even without Greg Jennings, there is a wealth of ridiculous receiving options.

The Chuck Pagano situation can go both ways.  I think it's going to hurt the Colts since they are in such a new program and the foundation isn't set yet.  The raw emotion of the scenario, along with the home crowd, could give them a big boost in the first half.  If they can keep it competitive, who knows?  I saw something similar happen last year when the Raiders upset the Texans after honoring Al Davis.  This is the only thing holding me back from playing the Packers straight on the spread.

The Colts can't run the ball worth a damn which puts much too pressure on Luck to carry the load.  The mismatch in personnel here is just too overwhelming for Indy. 

Giants

This isn't a game that requires a ton of analysis.  The Browns have a very young roster and are outmatched all over the field.  The best chance they have is to win the special teams battle, get timely turnovers, and pound the rock with Trent Richardson (who looks like a future stud btw).  Their defense has played over their heads (D'Qwell Jackson has been great) and must play one more week without all-star Joe Haden in the secondary.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, the Giants have too much ammo. Eli Manning is far superior to Brandon Weeden, and they'll do a much better job at winning the line of scrimmage. Joe Thomas is nursing a sore knee and at the other tackle spot is rookie Mitchell Schwartz.  Ouch.  It might not be a blowout because the Giants are notoriously inconsistent throughout the season, but I have a hard time believing the Browns keep this within a field goal at the final whistle.

NFL Pick: NYG -2.5 & GB -1.

Houston Texans -2 & Green Bay Packers -1

Some books are adjusting the juice and keeping the Texans out of the teaser window, but if you shop around there are -8's out there.  It wouldn't even shock me if more money comes in on the Texans leading up to kickoff.

Full analysis is here.

NFL Pick: HOU -2 & GB -1.

The rest of my Week 5 predictions are here, or you can find all my 2012 predictions on the home page main menu.