Saturday, October 6, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012 Week 5: Team Totals & Props

Sticking with a more selective approach with totals, here is what I like for Week 5.  All odds from 5Dimes and Pinnacle.








Eagles O19.5

Yes, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison are probable, Dick Lebeau has had an extra week to prepare, and Vick is still very turnover prone, but let's remember that this isn't the same Steelers defense of old.  The Eagles zone running scheme should be able to get McCoy good yardage on the edges and the wide receiver depth will put pressure on a secondary lacking quality depth.  I think this is a tough spot for Philly, but 20 points isn't asking a lot.

Packers O27

Green Bay came up two points short of their team total last week, but they were very unlucky to do so.  This week, I think they pull it off against a defense still without Pat Angerer and a healthy Dwight Freeney.  Indy's D isn't as bad as last year, but they still don't have the personnel to match up with a Green Bay for a full 60 minutes. 

Bears O22.5

I understand Chicago doesn't have a prolific offense yet, but the weapons are there to put up points.  The Jags defense is not only underachieving, but they've been downright awful.  Without a pass rush, I like Chicago to move the chains with regularity on Sunday.

Broncos O23

Denver has been one of the better teams in the league thus far.  They rank high on almost every metric across the board. Given the inconsistencies with the Patriots secondary and pass rush, I think it's fair to say Peyton will have his opportunities. New England is also still struggling to get off the field on third down, and they've been just so-so in the red zone. 

Chargers O24

I must be missing something with this number.  I realize the Saints are playing at home in a prime-time spot, but their defense has given no indication of slowing anybody down this year.  Just like the Jags, they can't get any sort of pass rush and can't get off the field.  San Diego is still capable of putting up good points on offense, especially while they're healthy.

Texans O24

The Jets defense wasn't doing good before the loss of Revis, but now that they're without him things are only getting worse.  This is once again a bottom tier defense without a pass rush, going up against a good offense.  I'm also not ruling out the real possibility of a score or two from the Texans defense.

Props

Props from 5Dimes and Bodog.

NYJ -.5 turnovers committed
Walter O35.5 rec yards


Rivers O282.5 pass yards
Rivers longest completion O36.5 yards
Meachem O42.5 receiving yards
Meachem O2.5 receptions

The rest of my Week 5 predictions are here, or you can find all my 2012 predictions on the home page main menu.