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Friday, September 28, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 4

A couple things on the replacement ref saga.  Their influence in favor of the home teams is currently up in the air.  Going into Week 3 they had called 23% more penalties against road teams, up from the 7% average. Yet, the results of Week 3 didn't see any correlation with that, making Week 2 an anomaly on the schedule (so far). 

What I'm personally interested in is how the passing game is affected once the regular refs come back.  The replacements have no idea how to enforce illegal contact/defensive holding and defensive backs are getting away with a ton.  If it was up to me I'd eliminate the illegal contact rule until the ball is in the air (much like college).  I like the battles that take place forcing receivers to earn the advantage rather than just running free past five yards. We'll see how it shakes out.

Week 3 Recap

Regardless of what happens in the Monday night game, it will be the second straight losing week for me. Unlike a lot handicappers out there, I don't deflect the blame, cry about refs and bad beats, or pretend losses didn't happen.

UPDATE: I'm sorry, but you can disregard my last statement.  Not sure I've ever seen officiating that bad in my entire life.  If you watched the 4th quarter of the Packers/Seahawks game, nothing more needs to be said. 

It's hard to regret the Panthers pick since I gave it out before the big line move, and I would pick the Lions again, too. The Redskins was a bad pick and I shouldn't have faded the Falcons given how they are playing this year. The Steelers pick is debatable, especially when you look at Big Ben's numbers and how many points they put up. 

The good news is I started this way in 2010 and finished almost 60% ATS.  The bottom line is I came out of the gate a bit too aggressive this year.  I turned too many leans into picks, so I'll be picking more selectively the next couple of weeks.  I'm really in no mood to post up my first losing season.

Week 4 Picks

Titans vs Texans

Redskins vs Buccaneers 

Bengals vs Jaguars

Seahawks vs Rams

Raiders vs Broncos


Team Totals


Following from Bodog, Pinnacle, or 5Dimes.

G Little O35.5 rec yards
L McCoy O22.5 rec yards 
D Jackson +12.5 rec yards vs Cruz 
Bears/Cowboys O3.5 FGs
A Jeffery U3.5 receptions

Seahawks/Rams O5.5
Giants/Eagles O4.5
Bears/Cowboys O5.5 

Survivor Pick

58% of the weekly poll put their faith in the 49ers and Saints in Week 3, and the majority of survivor pools out there are reporting that roughly 90% of the entrants have been eliminated.  There was no obvious pick on the board, but if I could pick the Texans every week I would. I went with the Bears, but their offense certainly didn't inspire a lot of confidence in the win.  Beyond the Bets have more information and strategy here, and TeamRankings have in depth analysis here.

Survivor Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Week 3: Chicago Bears
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans
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Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

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ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242