Friday, September 28, 2012

As with the sides, I'm taking a more focused approach on totals this week.  All numbers from 5Dimes.







Lions O25.5

It wasn't that long ago that Detroit was favored by more than a TD in this game.  The Vikings D is grading out well within the stats, but consider that they have played the 49ers, Colts, and Jaguars.  Not exactly high-powered offenses.  I think there is value here, especially with the possibility of a running game in LeShoure.

Falcons O27.5

I don't think the Panthers will be as bad as they were vs the Giants, but they don't match-up very good against this Atlanta offense.  They don't have enough difference makers up front to disrupt Matt Ryan, nor the cover guys to keep White and Jones in check.  I'm surprised this number isn't higher.

Chiefs O21.5

If KC actually played to their potential, the team total should be 24 at minimum.  Instead, the Chiefs are getting dog status here which brings their team total down. I'm not going to throw in the towel on this team yet and I think there is value on this number.

Broncos O27.5

The Raiders come into this game with possibly the worst secondary in the NFL. This is a secret to nobody.  As mentioned in my write-up, Denver has played three pretty good defenses thus far.  I find it hard to believe they'll struggle as much offensively in this spot.

Bengals O23

The Jags defense has been one of the most disappointing units this season.  Last year it was what they hung their hat on. Combine that with a passing offense on the rise, and it's hard to pass up a total of 23.  I like Cincy to win the game, and that includes covering this number.

Packers O30

Much like the Broncos, the Packers have faced good defenses this year - 49ers, Bears, and Seahawks.  Ouch!  So take the early season offensive numbers for GB with a grain of salt.  What better remedy than a porous Saints defense facing 0-4?  Packers roll.

The rest of my Week 4 predictions are here, or you can find all my 2012 predictions on the home page main menu.