Sunday, September 23, 2012

NFL Picks 2012: Week 3 Predictions
Before I get to Week 3, I'd just like to pass out my condolences if you had to suffer through the Monday Night Football game watching those replacement officials like I did.  Handicapping aside, I cannot wait until things get back to normal.  Last weekend was just atrocious officiating across the board.

Week 2 Recap

If you bet on every single home team in Week 2, you made a small fortune. Home teams finished 11-4-1 ATS. If you were like me and picked five road teams, you didn't do so well.  Final tally was a forgettable 2-4-1 ATS.  Dallas, Denver, Kansas City, and Chicago all came up short.  Even though sharp money came in on three of those teams and closed at a worse number, the spread never factored into the scores. On the bright side, team totals finished 6-4.  I'll be playing a bunch of those again on Wednesday.

Week 3 Picks

Giants vs Panthers

Texans vs Broncos

Bills vs Browns

Bengals vs Redskins

Falcons vs Chargers 

Lions vs Titans 

Steelers vs Raiders 

Packers vs Seahawks

Team Totals 

Teasers

Props

Following props from 5Dimes and Bodog.

LaFell O3.5 receptions
LaFell O58.5 receiving yards
G Olsen +18.5 receiving yards vs Bennett 
P Manning U245.5 passing yards 
A Brown O75.5 receiving yards
J Finley O49.5 receiving yards
Nelson -20.5 receiving yards vs Rice

Survivor Pick

No matter what survivor pool you reference, it seems like the average number of people who took the Patriots was right around 40%.  That's also how many people picked them in my weekly poll.

The toughest part of those pools is surviving the first month as we try to figure out what's what. Beyond the Bets did a story on big favorites and found that on average, 1.5 favorites of -13.5 or more lose straight up per season.  This year, it happened in Week 2.  If you are among the 60% that survived, big kudos to you.  Beyond the Bets has updated information and strategy here.

Survivor pool pick: Chicago Bears

Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 1: Houston Texans