Wednesday, September 19, 2012

NFL Picks 2012: Week 3 Team Totals
It's still very early in the season, but after skipping 'totals' for 2011, I've gotten back into it to try and capitalize on all this scoring.  So far 13-8 is a good enough reason to continue with them.

My approach is pretty simple: target the short underdogs and mid-range favorites as I see the most value in this window.  I've back tested some data over the last couple years and it appears to be a profitable way to go.  It's still a very small sample size, so I still use a bit of caution with my unit sizes.

The replacement refs also continue to throw more pass interference flags than regular refs and road teams are being penalized significantly more than usual as well. Coincidentally or not, all four of my team total losses last week came from road teams and all six of my wins came on home teams.  Anomaly?  We'll find out more this week.

With that, here's what I like for Week 3.  The rest will be added as they become available.  All odds from Pinnacle and 5Dimes.

Panthers O24.5 
Bears O24.5
Chiefs O21
Redskins O26
Lions O25
Eagles O23
Colts O22
Chargers O25.5
Patriots O23.5 
Packers O24