Saturday, September 15, 2012

NFL Picks 2012: Week 2 Team Totals
Last week the totals were inflated by an average of three points per game, but 'overs' still won the day going 9-7.  The average total points for each game was 49.5!  This week the books have bumped the totals up an average of one point.  Is that enough?

Also, in Week 1 replacement refs called a pass interference penalty on average once every 38 plays, which is over double the rate from previous years. I wrote last week that I had a suspicion the replacement refs were going to favor the pass-heavy teams at home. They didn't publish whether or not the increase in PI calls favored home teams, but the bottom line is offenses are being given much more favorable field position thanks to flags from replacement refs.

I'll be picking most of the short underdog and some mid-range (-3 to -7) favorite team totals.

Bears O22.5
Colts O21.5
Chiefs O21
Panthers O24
Bengals O22.5
Seahawks O19.5
Rams O21
Chargers O24
Lions O19.5
Broncos O24

Once again, if you're going to hop on board consider treating them like props and reducing your unit size (especially if you're looking for some extra action). 

All team totals are from 5Dimes. The rest of my Week 2 predictions are here, or you can find all my 2012 predictions on the home page main menu.