Friday, August 31, 2012

Prop bets are the most neglected options on the board, but if you play fantasy football or happen to be an advanced stats junkie then there is lots of value to be had.  Even if you just follow the sport closely, common sense should be enough to stick it to the books on more than enough props throughout the season.

Everybody approaches these differently. Generally I suggest to reduce your unit size due to the high degree of variance from prop to prop, but occasionally a prop is so badly priced/set that is pays to treat it like a regular wager or more.

Last season, in addition to game props, I included season long props and smashed them out of the park.  I'll be adding more as books release them leading up to the start of the season. Without further ado, let's take advantage of some favorable lines.

Following props are from 5Dimes.

Team Props  

Oakland Raiders to finish last in AFC West
This pick is a no-brainer for me.  Unless Rivers, Manning, or Cassel suffer a serious injury I see very little chance that the Raiders finish above any of those teams.  Their primary weaknesses in the air on both sides of the ball is unforgivable in today's NFL.

Player Props

Ryan +1.5 TD passes vs E Manning
P Manning -.5 TD passes vs E Manning

Two fades on Eli Manning here. The Giants have the single hardest schedule in the NFL this year.  Matt Ryan is scheduled to do a lot more downfield passing this year.  Peyton has looked like Peyton thus far.

Stafford +1 TD passes vs Brady
Tom Brady is playing behind the most concerning O-line in a long time. Stafford not only has a ton of great receiving options, but they are just as reliant on the pass as the Patriots. Lions are set for a monster year offensively.

Foster -2.5 rushing TD vs Turner
C Johnson +.5 rushing TD vs Turner
S Jackson +2 rushing TD vs Turner
R Rice -1 rushing TD vs Turner

Across the board fade on Michael Turner this year. He not only has a ton of carries on his body, but the coaches have openly told us they are going to reduce his workload this year in favor of more passing under Dirk Koetter.  Foster's and Rice's production is a given assuming they stay healthy, CJ is poised for a bounce back year, and SJ will be featured quite a bit under Jeff Fisher. In fact Fisher said they will run the ball regardless of how many are in the box.

Following props from Bodog.

Total Starts

R Wilson O10.5

Passing Yards

P Manning U4250
E Manning U4300
Luck U3750
Gabbert O2800
Sanchez U3200
Palmer U3700
A Smith U3300
Freeman O3750

Receiving Yards

T Gonzalez U725.5
White U1100.5
Boldin U850.5
Charles O325.5
Bush U325.5
D Moore U850.5
Heyward-Bey U950.5
Maclin O950.5
Crabtree U850.5
F Davis U850.5
S Moss U700.5
Garcon U975.5
Amendola O650.5
S Smith U1100.5
LaFell O700.5
Olsen O550.5

Receptions

Welker U105.5

Rushing + Receiving TDs

L McCoy O14.5

Receiving TDs

J Jones O8.5
Wayne O6.5
C Johnson O12.5
Maclin O6.5

Rushing TDs

A Rodgers O3.5
Luck O2

Rushing Yards 

R Rice U1250.5
F Jackson U1050.5 
Forte U1050.5
McGahee U900.5
Foster U1300.5
Charles O1000.5
Bush U875.5
Bradshaw U1000.5
Green U1050.5
Lynch U1000.5
C Johnson O1150.5
Ridley U850.5

Interceptions

Claiborne O2.5
T Williams O3.5
D Rogers-Cromartie O3