Everybody approaches these differently. Generally I suggest to reduce your unit size due to the high degree of variance from prop to prop, but occasionally a prop is so badly priced/set that is pays to treat it like a regular wager or more.
Last season, in addition to game props, I included season long props and smashed them out of the park. I'll be adding more as books release them leading up to the start of the season. Without further ado, let's take advantage of some favorable lines.
Following props are from 5Dimes.
Team PropsOakland Raiders to finish last in AFC West
This pick is a no-brainer for me. Unless Rivers, Manning, or Cassel suffer a serious injury I see very little chance that the Raiders finish above any of those teams. Their primary weaknesses in the air on both sides of the ball is unforgivable in today's NFL.
Player PropsRyan +1.5 TD passes vs E Manning
P Manning -.5 TD passes vs E Manning
Two fades on Eli Manning here. The Giants have the single hardest schedule in the NFL this year. Matt Ryan is scheduled to do a lot more downfield passing this year. Peyton has looked like Peyton thus far.
Stafford +1 TD passes vs Brady
Tom Brady is playing behind the most concerning O-line in a long time. Stafford not only has a ton of great receiving options, but they are just as reliant on the pass as the Patriots. Lions are set for a monster year offensively.
Foster -2.5 rushing TD vs Turner
C Johnson +.5 rushing TD vs Turner
S Jackson +2 rushing TD vs Turner
R Rice -1 rushing TD vs Turner
Across the board fade on Michael Turner this year. He not only has a ton of carries on his body, but the coaches have openly told us they are going to reduce his workload this year in favor of more passing under Dirk Koetter. Foster's and Rice's production is a given assuming they stay healthy, CJ is poised for a bounce back year, and SJ will be featured quite a bit under Jeff Fisher. In fact Fisher said they will run the ball regardless of how many are in the box.
Following props from Bodog.
Total StartsR Wilson O10.5
Passing YardsP Manning U4250
E Manning U4300
A Smith U3300
Receiving YardsT Gonzalez U725.5
D Moore U850.5
F Davis U850.5
S Moss U700.5
S Smith U1100.5
Rushing + Receiving TDsL McCoy O14.5
Receiving TDsJ Jones O8.5
C Johnson O12.5
Rushing TDsA Rodgers O3.5
Rushing YardsR Rice U1250.5
F Jackson U1050.5
C Johnson O1150.5
T Williams O3.5
D Rogers-Cromartie O3