Friday, August 31, 2012

After picking the Packers to make and win the Super Bowl in 2010 I couldn't have been more off last year with my "Chargers over Packers" prediction. You kind of have to make the playoffs to win the Super Bowl huh?

I add these picks more for fun as I don't put a lot of value in Super Bowl futures. Most fans want to lay a wager on their favorite team or hope for some value in a team off the radar.  There are great hedging opportunities if you can get it right, but for the most part the sportsbooks clean house on this bet.

So despite the fact that this is a prediction sure to go wrong, these are my teams for the 2013 Super Bowl..

Houston Texans (+1200 Bodog) over Green Bay Packers (no value)

This will be the third straight year I pick the Green Bay to reach the Super Bowl, but I assure I am not a "Packers fan".  They are simply the no-brainer pick to come out of the NFC. If their defense can get close to the middle of the pack look out.

Last year I had the Texans as my AFC "sleeper" pick thanks to the expected improvements on defense and if it wasn't for injuries, they very well could have made it.  This year their projections are off the charts in most of my power rankings categories.  I also think the AFC is going to be an easier road than the NFC, so a winner from this conference should be a little easier to forecast.

Sleeper Picks

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (+6230 Pinnacle)

Don't look at me like that. Yes, I said the KC Chiefs.  This pick is more about value than anything else.  As the Giants proved last year, and the Packers the year before that, just getting in gives you a fair chance at going to the big dance.  Cassel doesn't need to be great, he simply needs to feed the vast array of weapons around him and let his defense do the rest.

NFC

Detroit Lions (+3200 5Dimes)

I wanted to go with the Eagles here because they could theoretically grade out higher than the Packers "if all goes well".  However, there isn't enough value on their odds to add them as a "sleeper.  Instead I'll go with the Lions for the 2nd straight year.  We all know how great their offense is, but this year their D-line should be even better than the previous two seasons.  This can go a long way in helping out a suspect secondary and get them to February.

Want to see if your Super Bowl predictions pan out in person?

Our friends over at Project Point Spread have a great pick em contest running this year.  If your picks are better than the rest you'll win tickets to Super Bowl XLVII.  Best of all it's free to join - and around here we like 'free'.  Best of luck!