Thursday, July 26, 2012

NFL Picks 2012 UpdateMost of the sports world might be focusing on the Summer Olympics in London, but around here the big news is the start of NFL training camps.  Most of the hard work is already done.  Team previews, offseason power rankings, custom strength of schedule, season win totals part I, and division winners are all up on the site as we await week 1 lines for the NFL preseason.

During the downtime, I decided breakdown my records even more to give you an even better idea of where my strengths and weaknesses lie.  In the tradition of full disclosure and transparency, I like to keep my readers up to date on every pick that gets posted on my site.

Since I essentially stopped totals after 2010 (NFLX is the exception), I separated those from sides in the records section.  It never looks good at have a 15-19 record on your resume, but at the same time it highlights my record ATS (57.1%) --which is my main focus and strength. 

NFL Picks 2012 Records
I've also broken down my overall record ATS by preseason, regular season, and playoffs.  I believe this is important because it illustrates just how different each part of the season is.

In the preseason, coaches openly tell us the player rotations and how long each unit will be on the field.  This is a tremendous advantage compared to the rest of the season.  A large faction of NFL bettors skip the preseason because they believe they are nothing more than a coin flip. This is supported by the fact that my traffic takes a huge jump once the regular season draws near. 

In the regular season all factors are created equal. Our edge is primarily going to come from our own handicapping rather than from insights from coaches.  Finally, the playoffs have the sharpest lines on the board that you'll find all year.  Consequently, some sharps skip the playoffs entirely.

Therefore, it's no surprise that my records fall in line accordingly.  61% preseason, 56% regular season, 50% playoffs. 

    NFL Picks 2012 Week 1 Preview
  • Looking ahead, NFLX week 1 lines should be widely available soon and I've already circled a few games on the board.  I'm also going to take an early look at week 1 regular season line movement and tell you what catches my eye.  

PS - In the past, I tried to provide updates on the site for the significant line movement throughout the season, but given how fast things move that could be outdated info by the time it hits the site.  Instead, this year I've added a live odds link on the main menu and I'll be taking a more active approach on Twitter to give more insight in real-time.  Check that out for my thoughts on line movement, league news, key stats, and links to all sorts of articles/tidbits to keep you on top of things.