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Friday, February 3, 2012

NFL Super Bowl Props Predictions: February 5, 2012

I would not wager more than a half unit on any of these because at the end of the day they are just game props.  They are more intended for some fun for those that like a little bit extra on the games.  The Super Bowl is the most popular game to wager prop bets on so there are nearly 300+ to choose from. I am not suggesting betting on all of the ones listed below, but these are the ones that I can find some justification for.  Many of the other props available are nothing more than a blind coin flip.  These include everything from Madonna's hair color and fishnet stockings all the way to Kelly Clarkson's ability to get the anthem right.  All the following props can be found at Bodog.

How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?   U1 min 34 sec
A lot of people seem to think 1 minute and 34 seconds is too short for the national anthem on the biggest stage.  Based on various reports out there, this is above her average time.  Could she draw some notes out for dramatic effect?  Sure, but I'm going with the law of averages here.

How many times will Peyton Manning be shown on TV during the game? U3.5
I've seen these kinds of props a dozen times over previous seasons and it's not very often that something non-game related gets this much attention during a game.  They might bring up his health status once and a comparison to his brother another time, but I think this number even gives us a little breathing room in case there is a lull in the action. 

How many times will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TV during the game? O 0.5
The Super Bowl is all about glitz and glamor.  This game will have a broader audience than any other sporting event of the year and if Gisele makes herself visible you can be sure that they will pan to her at least one time during the broadcast.  The only way I see that they don't is if the "Golden Couple" put in a special request not to prior to the game.

How many times will Jim Irsay be mentioned on TV during the game? U1
I really don't see how Irsay will become a name of topic during a Super Bowl between different teams.  He's been in a news a lot over the last couple weeks, but is that enough reason for them to bring it up?  Irsay might get a throw-away mention in passing, but no way do they revisit his name more than once. 

How many times will David Tyree's 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game? O1
If you weren't lucky enough to get in on this prop while the number was still at 1 then you might want to lean towards U1.5.  My rationale for taking the over is too simple--how can they not show his catch at least one time during the game?  Even if the game isn't close they will air this once, but if it is a close game in the 4th quarter they might even show it an additional time.  We are talking about the most dramatic and amazing catch in Super Bowl history and we have the same teams in a rematch just a few years later. 

How many times will Andrew Luck be mentioned on TV during the game? U1
I took the under on this one for many of the same reasons that I took the under for Peyton and Irsay.  These names just don't come up during the course of a game as often as people think they do.  I think the line on this prop should be set at 0.5, not 1.  At worst I see a push.

How many times will Robert Kraft be shown on TV during the game? U3.5
The money is coming in on the over on this one.  Kraft is always at the center of the Patriots so I can't put up that big of a fight against the over, but as I've said--four times is a lot to show someone during a broadcast.  I could see them showing him once or twice during celebrations and another time if a topic of relevance comes up. 

Will any player get a penalty for excessive celebration in the game? YES
I really like the odds for this prop (+250).  I don't anticipate any players getting cute with celebrations given who the coaches are and what's at stake, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if a player gets caught up in the emotion of the occasion and goes over the top--especially if it's a key score or a blowout.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first? God, Teammates
Last year I picked the same prop and I chose "God".  It turns out no one was thanked by Aaron Rodgers.  Given that the MVP will likely be either Brady or Manning, I like the odds for "Teammates", but I still think "God" is a decent choice to hedge with--especially if someone else has a big game and walks away with the prize.

What will the TV Rating be for the Super Bowl? U47.5
Last year the over/under for the Nielsen rating was set at 46 and it went under despite setting records for most viewers for a TV rating.  47.5 is high and I'd be very surprised if it went over this total.

How many average viewers will the game have? U117M
Will this game surpass last year's total by 6 million viewers?  The simple answer is "no".

How many viewers will stream the Super Bowl online? U1.5M
NBC averaged 250,000 online viewers for their Sunday Night games this year that also carried an average viewership of 20M television viewers.  This is a bit of an experiment for the NFL and NBC and I'm comfortable with the under--especially since many of the executives have already gone on the record to say they are expecting underwhelming numbers during their first try at this. 

The books have now come up with a lot of cross-sport props to draw in the casual viewer.  As a big hockey fan, I've rolled with the following...

NYG Total Team Points vs Lundqvist saves - NYG 
The Philadelphia Flyers have the ability to put up a lot of shots, but the NYR are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.  I like the NYG to score between 20-30 points on Sunday, which could be enough to win this prop alone, but it would only take an extra field goal or touchdown to win this one comfortably.

Gaborik shots vs Manningham receptions - Gaborik 
Manningham hasn't been incorporated into the offense all that much during the post-season.  Gaborik averages 3.32 shots per game, but given his propensity to shoot he could easily wind up with 5-6 shots on Sunday.  It would take an injury to Nicks or Cruz to get Manningham this many balls. 

Nicks receptions vs Goals in Flyers/Rangers game - Nicks
The average number of goals for an NHL games hovers around 5.5, but NY are one of the stingiest teams in the league allowing just under 2 goals per game.  Nicks is going to be targeted early and often and given how questionable that NE pass defense is...this pick is a no-brainer. 

Brady TD passes vs Bruins Total Team goals - Bruins 
The over/under for Brady TD passes is set at 2.5.  The Boston Bruins average 3.5 goals per game.  Need I say more?

Branch receptions vs Seguin shots - Branch 
Seguin averages 2.8 shots per game.  I see Brady looking Branch's way more times than this on Sunday--especially if Gronk is going to be limited as expected.

If Tom Brady's son is shown on TV during the game will he be wearing a Brady jersey - Yes
Another no-brainer here.  Kids are often wearing their father's jerseys to the game and I think this is no exception.  If I had to wager on it I'd say they don't show Brady's son, but if they do then I like this prop to cash.
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242