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Saturday, December 31, 2011

Week 17 NFL Predictions: January 1, 2012

For latest odds check out one of my trusted sportsbooks - 5 Dimes, Bodog or Intertops.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:Some think that DET have nothing to play for coming into this game.  That's easy to say if you think they like the idea of playing NO in round 1.  I'm pretty sure they'd like to avoid that and they already announced they will be playing their starters.  Will they finish the game?  That remains to be seen, but what we do know is GB will be going through the motions in this one.  If any of you saw what that looked like in the preseason you'll understand why this is probably my favorite pick of the week.  Flynn is a good prospect, but Stafford will have a monumental advantage in the air.

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER: I really liked KC -2.5 last week against OAK, but thanks to two blocked field goals (including a potential game clinching) it wasn't meant to be.  I'm coming back with them again this week against an overrated DEN team.  After NE popped the Tebow bubble, the "chosen one" followed it up with a dud last week in BUF.  This week Orton makes his unceremonial return to DEN and don't be shocked if he rains on the Tebow love-fest to close out the season.  I think the wonder boy throws another couple picks on Sunday.  Getting the hook is an extra bonus in what should be a pick em game. 

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: The line moved off a key number here.  BAL opened as -3 favorites but money came in on CIN.  I disagree with the move.  CIN have made great strides this year, have a healthy AJ Green, and a sellout crowd, but can they beat the top teams?  So far they are 9-2 against the mid-range and bottom-feeders, but 0-4 against the upper echelon this season.  Meanwhile BAL is 3-0 against tough teams in 2011.  In a game as even as this, that is the tipping point for me.  Even though I'm not a Flacco fan...they should be able to rise to the occasion for a final time.  Also keep in mind BAL is a +68 in points from long drives while CIN is -39.  That could come into play if the game is decided on the final few possessions. 

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: Both teams have an outside chance to move up in the standings on Sunday, but both scenarios are unlikely.  Sharps think TEN have more motivation to win and moved the line up from -1.5 to -3.  That was enough for me to look at HOU.  Given the fact that Andre Johnson is suiting up, I like Yates a whole lot more than I did without the world-class receiver.   If both teams go for the win then HOU has all of the advantages with the X's and O's.  And even if HOU don't have their "A" game, they should be able to cover as a dog.  This HOU defense has held opponents to less than 20 points in 11 of their 15 games and it could get ugly if TEN get down early. 

DALLAS @ NEW YORK: The prime-time event of the week got flexed to Sunday night as the NFC East divisional crown is up for grabs.  Figuring out these teams (and this division) has been a nightmare all season so there are a lot of people sitting on the fence heading into this matchup.  The stats say one thing, but they have been largely meaningless when these teams take the field.  In theory, both teams match up pretty evenly with DAL holding the edge with their run defense (or lack of NYG run offense).  However, with home field advantage and Romo's reputation in must-win situations...I really like NY in this spot.  Throw in an injured hand for Romo and I like NY that much more. 

TEASERS: I teased a collection of favorites have been teased down for Sunday.  NO, NE, ATL, and PIT all have some incentive to win their games and all face significantly inferior opponents.  The only underdog that would give me pause is CAR.  They are a young bunch looking to get better and Newton has proved he can move the chains and put up points.  Teasing NO down to avoid a backdoor cover makes the most sense, but backing CAR with the spread has proved too volatile in the second half of the year.  They make far too many mistakes to rely on them to do anything right...especially on the road.  PHI have been covering games left and right down the stretch even though they've known a shot at the playoffs were a long-shot.  They got embarrassed in the early part of the year with all the dream-team talk so look for them to come out with the full intentions on winning the final game of the year.  This group of talent has a lot of pride and won't roll over on coach Reid.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 Week 17 NFL Predictions

Week 17 is a lot like the preseason with many teams resting players and announcing their intentions beforehand.  When it comes to making picks, motivation reigns supreme.  I have a few picks ready now, but I'll have more posted Friday afternoon after more information is made available--along with the write-ups.

Friday, December 23, 2011

2011 Week 16 NFL Predictions

Week 16 picks are up. It's another big week of teasers as I look to keep the ball rolling there.  There's also a handful of sides where I see obvious value with in week 16.  Write-ups to follow soon.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

2011 Week 15 Market Watch

UPDATE: With the SD win I have myself a 5-2 week on teasers!  That also makes it 8-2 in the last 10.  I felt good about turning those around, but I still have two more weeks to end things on a winning note.  DET came through for a last minute push on sides.

The public usually ride the heavy favorites, but it's been a while since there have been this many favorites picks from the Hilton contest.  It seems to have paid off because for the 1st time all year there was a clean sweep 5-0 record! I'm sure most of those contestants wished it had come earlier in the year because most of them aren't in the running to win it at this year.  The public went 2-3.

I'll have week 16 picks with write-ups posted soon.

Market Watch

Public Consensus Top 5 Picks

GB -14
NO  -6.5
CIN -6.5
ARI -6.5
NYG -6.5

Record to date: 35-39-1

Hilton Contest Consensus Top 5 Picks

CIN -6.5
NE  -6.5
NO  -6.5
CAR +6.5
DAL -6.5

Record to date: 39-31-5

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Week 15 NFL Predictions: December 18, 2011

For latest odds check out one of my trusted sportsbooks - 5 Dimes, Bodog or Intertops.

DALLAS AT TAMPA BAY: DAL is another one of the weekly inconsistent teams vying for a playoff spot.  Sharps moved the line up to a full touchdown in some markets and they are staying far away from this TB team.   On paper, DAL have most of the advantages and should have little trouble winning this game straight up.   They should be able to run or pass and limit TB to the passing game.  DAL also has a far superior defensive line which becomes a nice edge at this time of year.  Both teams are horrendous with their red zone efficiency, but TB turn the ball over far more often.  Teasing DAL is a no-brainer in this spot.

NEW ORLEANS AT MINNESOTA: There is mixed support on both of these teams depending on where the point spread is.  I prefer to avoid all confusion and tease NO down as they continue to push for playoff seeding.  It won't really matter much who MIN has at QB because Brees should be able to have his way with an underwhelming MIN secondary.   Sharps aren't crazy about NO as a road team, but in a dome things should be much more stable for this fast-paced offense.  AP is probable, but he'll need to be a man possessed to carry this offense to the promised land.  MIN have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  Look for NO to sustain drives at will and dominate the clock from the get-go. 

CAROLINA AT HOUSTON: This pick is going a little bit against the grain.  Sharps prefer Newton over Yates by a considerable margin, but I prefer to tease HOU down on the strength of their running game and defense.  CAR have been horrible with their yards-to-points ratio, turnover ratio, penalties, and special teams all year long.  Now they face a top tier defense.  The other big weakness CAR have is stopping the run.  With AJ out again this week HOU is going to pound the rock all game long.  It should be enough to come away with the straight up win with or without a good performance from Yates. 

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Money has come in on IND in this one from the pros because they like the home field advantage, injury concerns at TEN QB, and the desperation of a winless IND team.  That sounds good in theory, but reality is what wins and loses football games.  IND have been so far and above bad in every meaningful category this season.  It's not even worth listing all the mis-matches.  Granted TEN isn't exactly the most reliable side, but they've proved that they aren't about to pack it in despite their prospects this year.  For the most part they have taken care of the ball and protected their QB quite well this year.  It also helps that CJ is finally earning some of his contract. 

CINCINNATI AT ST. LOUIS: There hasn't been a lot of movement in this game.  CIN is overpriced at the current line, but STL haven't been able to cover all year so most people are taking a pass.   I like CIN to win this game straight up thanks to their defense.  STL have had serious problems on offense all season long and will need to have one of their best mistake-free games of the year to overcome the mismatches.  Clemens is in for a long day and will need to do his best Mike Vick impersonation to avoid all the defenders who will be in the backfield.  Good luck!

DETROIT AT OAKLAND: A few weeks ago sharps would have been all over OAK as a pick em at home.  Now the winds have changed and the early money came in on DET.  I'm in complete agreement with them.  I've never felt good about putting my money on Palmer and that goes for this week more than ever.  For the most part, this season has still been all about the passing game and ability to sustain drives.  DET have a huge advantage in both areas.  In fact, DET has almost 150+ points more than OAK in their points from long drives categories.  A lot of this has to do with DET's ability to get off the field on 3rd down and score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone.  OAK are the complete opposite in both stats.  Don't overthink this one, roll with the favorite.

NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER: I'm not going to say much about this because it's been over-hyped and over-analyzed in the media all week long.  Simply put I'm not a Tebow believer despite his results.  He can't expect the same unlikely events to happen each and every week.  Sooner or later the bubble is going to burst and it's shaping up to be this week against Tom Brady and company.  Granted NE's secondary is horrific, but DEN is outmatched in the passing game and Tebow won't be able to keep up.  He's most effective when the game is tight at the end, but this could be over by the 3rd quarter--if not sooner.  If DEN do pull the upset, it will be thanks to their defensive line making Brady's day miserable--not thanks to Tebow's heroics. 

CLEVELAND AT ARIZONA: Put up your hand if you've watched Seneca Wallace play over the last year.  If you have, you'll know how bad he has been.  I'm not saying Kolb is any better, because he's been overrated since the minute ARI acquired him.  Yet, I don't think this CLE team has much of a chance winning on the road no matter who the opponent is.  They are 0-8 against the top half of the league and even have a couple losses against bottom feeders too.  Their only saving grace comes from their pass defense, but ARI should be able to do enough in other areas to compensate.  If CLE had a better pass rush I'd likely pass on this game, because ARI rank dead last in pass protection.  Since they don't, I have little trouble throwing them in a teaser and seeing what happens. UPDATE: Kolb is out with a concussion, but it doesn't alter my opinion on this game. Given the way he's played this year, it's not a significant downgrade.

BALTIMORE AT SAN DIEGO: If SD had been able to pull out a couple more wins this year they would likely be favored in this one.  But due to a couple freak events, SD still have a losing record and get pegged with underdog status this week.  They've blown out a couple crap teams the last couple weeks...which doesn't tell us much other than they still have the talent to be a threat.   BAL hold the advantages on the ground and the passing games are pretty much a wash.  BAL also have the edge on both the offensive and defensive lines.  Therefore anyone considering taking BAL on the point spread would be justified in doing so, but I'd prefer to tease SD up as the home dog in a prime-time game instead.  They still have a lot of motivation to come out with the win so I doubt they would go through the motions.  As long as Rivers doesn't digress into his earlier turnover machine mode, they should cover the +8.5.

Friday, December 16, 2011

2011 Week 15 NFL Predictions

If you like teaser options, week 15 is for you.  I've had a nice little run on these picks in the 2nd half after a rough 1st half of the season.  This week is definitely going to make or break my year in this category, but more than half of the games sit in the teaser window and there are too many good opportunities to pass up.  You can pretty much mix and match whichever games you like. Consequently, it doesn't leave a lot of tasty options on sides, but I do like DET to win and cover.

Week 15 Predictions
I'll have some write-ups and summaries later on today.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

2011 Week 14 Market Watch

What was looking like a great week became 'good' thanks to the 4th quarter collapse by the Cowboys.  I've been doing this long enough to expect that come December, but it's still a kick in the gut nevertheless.  This was the 2nd week in a row I've been burnt by a late missed DAL field goal.  The week finished up 3-2 on sides and 2-0 on teasers. 

The public loaded up on the big favorites once again and finished 2-3 for the week.  The Hilton picks didn't do much better going 2-3 as well. 

Market Watch

Public Consensus Top 5 Picks

GB -11
NO -3.5
NE -8
SF -3.5
NYG +3.5

Record to date: 33-36-1

Hilton Contest Consensus Top 5 Picks

NYG +3.5
ATL -3
SF -3.5
TEN +3.5
DET -7

Record to date: 34-31-5

Friday, December 9, 2011

Week 14 NFL Predictions: December 11, 2011

For latest odds check out one of my trusted sportsbooks - 5 Dimes, Bodog or Intertops.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +2
I can understand making TB a favorite when one considers what happened to JAX on MNF vs SD last week, but let's keep in mind which direction these teams are going.  TB has had a steady decline during the second half of the season while JAX has actually been ok with their play...for the most part.  I think the market has overreacted to the JAX loss and because it was on prime-time they aren't going to get a lot of respect from the public either.

A closer look at this game reveals that JAX should be able to dominate it on the ground.  MJD will have his opportunities to make fantasy owners happy as TB rank pretty low with run defense.  In fact, TB has given up an average of 170 yards rushing per game during their 6 game losing streak!  On top of this, JAX's O-line is motivated to get MJD the rushing title. In the air they don't have as much to fear as Gabbert still looks very much like a rookie, but with Talib looking doubtful the edge might go with JAX here too.  TB was already bad vs the pass to begin with.  They can't pressure the QB, get stops in the red zone, or get off the field on 3rd down either.  

Adding insult to injury, Freeman is coming off a shoulder injury, Blount is denying legal allegations, and Price was sent home by Morris last week.  This is a young, immature bunch and it shows on the field with costly penalties and a bad turnover differential.  How motivated are they going to be to take out a lowly JAX team on the road?

Offensively things don't get much better for TB.  JAX has been pretty good against the run and pass this year and the last time I checked Freeman doesn't have the skills or weapons that a Rivers has.  Roll with the home dog in this one. Prediction: Bank JAX +2.

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals: HOU +3
A lot of sharps don't trust Yates yet so most pros are staying away from this game.  Last week I was in full agreement as I took ATL on the road against HOU.  What I underestimated though was the power of the HOU running game and the legitimacy of their defense.  Even without Schaub this team has continued to rise in my power rankings.  That is no easy feat when you consider all the different variables I consider.  Even after deducting points for the big injuries, they still outperform the odds.

On the flip side, CIN is a team going in the opposite direction.  After their promising first half of the season, more was expected of them down the stretch.  No one was really quite sure how they would respond when the going got tough, but they are 0-3 against top teams.  That's not a good sign when you have one of the best AFC teams coming to town this week.

Look for HOU's defense to dominate most of the game.  I like what CIN has going on with Dalton, Green, and Gresham, but they are far from a polished bunch and will have their hands full all day.  HOU's defense have them outmatched in the air and on the ground.  They also know how to get off the field on 3rd down, limit points from long drives, and win the turnover battle.  Whatever points CIN do get, it won't come easy--especially with a hobbled Benson.

CIN's defense is pretty good too and there won't be any huge mismatches on this side of the ball either.  I expect HOU to stick with the ground game and make life as easy as possible for Yates to manage.  The main problem that CIN face is the fact that HOU have made it clear they are going to run the ball before and teams still haven't been able to slow them down.  That O-line is no joke and Vickers will be back in the lineup leading the way.  The one area that I expect HOU to have the edge in is in the red zone.  CIN rank near the bottom of the league in red zone defense.  Additionally, CIN's secondary is banged up so Yates should have some play-action opportunities in the air.  Prediction: Bank HOU +3.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins: MIA -3
I can't believe that I'm picking MIA as a favorite over the Eagles with Vick in the lineup, but that's how far the birds have fallen this year.  If they were a healthy bunch I might have gone with the road dog here, but PHI is so banged up and so riddled with rumors and controversy that I can't possibly imagine that they'll bring it altogether for a win this week.  The 'Dream Team' is dead and motivation will be low as they travel to the Sunshine State this Sunday.

When you break this game down to its fundamentals the advantage should be with PHI in the air and on the ground.  However, Vick has been out a few weeks and he's coming back to a mess of a situation.  I'm a huge fan of McCoy, but he's not 100% right now.  D-Jax is acting like a diva and Maclin is hobbled with a hamstring injury.  Vick has also never been very good with Celek either.  Once again he'll rely on his athleticism to make things happen and he'll be relying heavily on Avant in 3rd and long situations.  The problem for PHI's offense though will be MIA's 3rd down/red zone defense--they rank near the top in both of those categories.  MIA are also a very disciplined bunch so PHI won't get a lot of freebie calls to sustain drives.

If PHI hope to win this game they'll need a stellar performance from their defense. However, Castillo is a sitting duck and there have been rumors all season long that the players never bought into his system or eclectic approach to coaching.  Cole, Jenkins, DRC, and Asomugha are all banged up and it's uncertain how effective they will be come game-time.  My suspicion is this is a team waiting for the other shoe to drop so they can move onto the off-season and hope for changes come next year.  That said, things aren't all peachy for MIA's offense either.  They are horrible on 3rd down and don't protect the QB very well.  This could be a problem area with PHI's front-four.  Having said that, they are playing better of late and just need to get in the 20 so they can go up against the worst red zone defense in the NFL.  

The most glaring stat that jumped out at me is PHI's record against the bottom third of the league (1-3).  Good teams that under-perform can usually take care of business in this area, but PHI can't even do that.  Fade PHI until further notice.  Prediction: Bank MIA -3.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers: ATL -2.5
Two teams that have really let me down this year meet in week 14.  You may need to shop around to find ATL at under a field goal, but I would still make it a play if it was -3 across the board.

The first half of the season was a tale of two tapes for these clubs.  Everyone was on the CAR bandwagon as Cam shocked the NFL landscape.  ATL came out trying to morph into the GB Packers, but quickly found out that Matt Ryan isn't Aaron Rodgers.  Since then ATL has returned to what they do best--play fundamental football, control the clock, and take their shots when they can.  As a result they've slowly but surely climbed my power rankings and now sit as a legitimate playoff contender.  Meanwhile, CAR have never really lived up to the early season hype and all those glaring mistakes have turned out to be part of their identity rather than negative variance.

ATL should control this game running the ball since CAR haven't been able to stop the run all year.  CAR can't get off the field on 3rd down, keep people out of the end zone, stay disciplined, or win a turnover battle.  Overall it is a group that is a mixture of sub-standard talent and youthful mistakes.  Cam isn't tearing it up like he was earlier in the year either.  Some of that is due to a natural regression to the mean and some of it is defenses figuring out how to defense him in the air.  Look for him to continue making plays with his feet instead.  CAR's offense should be able to drive the field against ATL, but they'll find things tough once they get inside the 20.  They'll also need to rely heavily on their main units because CAR rank near the bottom in special teams play.  ATL is still a solid team across the board and I expect them to take care of business against an up and down CAR team still trying to figure out how to win games in this league. Prediction: Bank ATL -2.5.

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys: DAL -3
You will need to shop around to find DAL at -3, but if you wait there's a good chance the line will move there across the board anyways.  Most of the time it's a good bet to have two competitive NFC East teams at a field goal difference, but in this game I like how DAL matchup.

First and foremost DAL should be able to have their way with NY on the ground both offensively and defensively.  It's a little surprising that NY have done so well this year without a good running game to rely on, but they rank near the bottom in rushing yards per game and per rush.  Injuries haven't accounted for it so it's safe to chalk it up to underperformance.  What NY has been good at though is points from long drives and red zone offense efficiency.  DAL aren't bad defending these areas, but they aren't great either.  If NY are going to win this game they'll need a great game from Eli Manning.

The problem for NY is they are on the road and outmatched on both sides of the ball in several key areas.  DAL should be able to mix it up enough with the pass and the run to dictate play and put points on the board.  They have been horrendous in the red zone however and Romo doesn't have the best December track record.  The fact that this is a prime-time game only makes it worse.  That said, it's not enough for me to pass up this value.  I think DAL should be favored by 5 or 6 points based on everything I see.  They do a good job pressuring the QB and don't have big problem areas like NY does.  Give DAL credit for not falling apart so far and I expect them to win the division.   Ware has returned to practice and Lee wasn't lost for the year like many people feared.  Even Miles Austin could see some playing time this week.  He's expected to return, although it's unknown how effective he'll be since he's had issues with his hamstring all year.  Roll with the home team, but don't lay more than a field goal.  Prediction: Bank DAL -3.

2011 Week 14 NFL Predictions

Like usual, week 14 is filled with a lot of inflated favorites.  Some sharps love to bet double digit dogs blind no matter what the matchup is, but I tend to stay away from those games altogether.  There are a couple of smaller dogs that I like this week though.  Those picks and write-ups are now posted.  I'll have the market watch up tomorrow.

Week 14 Predictions

Thursday, December 8, 2011

2011 NFL Three-Quarter Power Rankings

I use a set of 17 weighted statistics--some of them traditional and some of them custom--as the core basis of my ratings, but I adjust the rankings slightly based on various qualitative factors (coaching, injuries, opinion, strength of schedule, etc).

Power rankings are good to have, but they only tell you where teams sit in relation to one another in the overall scheme of things. A team lower in rank could easily

defeat a team above it if they matchup well with them--something to keep in mind when evaluating weekend games.

Rank Contenders
Still leaky on defense, but as long as Rodgers is healthy they'll remain at the top.
Good/great in most categories across the board. The only question remaining surrounds Flacco.
HOU is proving how good they really are when you consider their injury list. They don't rank in the bottom half in any meaningful stat.
NE have yo-yo'd up and down the contender list all season long. They are settling in as a legitimate threat, but not without flaws. The defense is showing signs of improvement though.
ATL remain under the radar, but they are a solid team in most areas. Their biggest problem is their record against top teams (1-4).
NY have slipped a bit in the rankings after going on a hot streak. Their archilles heel is still Sanchez and the O-line.
It took them a while to move up this list, but they've finally put together a good stretch of games. Red zone defense and turnover differential are worth keeping an eye on.
Not much movement here. Red zone defense is still a concern, but as long as they play at home they should be good to go.
Most people have SF higher on their rankings due to their record, but come playoff time their shortcomings in the fundamental areas (O-line, RZ offense) will hold them back.
A tough schedule has left them teetering with a 2-4 records against top teams. They are a good solid team in most areas, but can't compensate for untimely mistakes.
DET has dropped a bit, but some of that is due to injuries and some due to schedule. They will remain a contender once they get some guys back.
DAL have slipped into the contender group almost by accident. They continue to get killed by their lackluster red zone offense, but they are capable of making some noise. Romo will need to overcome his December record to stay here though.

I expected more teams to drop out of the contender group by now, but there is so much parity (or mediocrity) in the league that it's tough to differentiate these teams

from each other. They've all done enough to earn their spot here, but the next 4 games will separate the men from the boys.

Rank (LW) Pretenders
Losing Cutler was a serious setback. With him they would have moved into contender status. Without him, they'll remain a step below the rest. Play on both O/D lines are still a question mark.
People expected the other shoe to drop with BUF and it did. They have one of the biggest drops since mid-season. The defense was horrible and losing Jackson killed any hope they had at a turnaround.
Give them credit for now throwing in the towel when they could have. Still have serious flaws in key areas (D-line, 3rd down, ball control), but CJ's bounce-back gives them a new chance for success.

The pretender group remains small. These teams have enough to pull off a big win, but are too fundamentally flawed to seriously challenge teams above them. Another half-dozen teams will join them by the end of December.

Rank (LW) On the Bubble
Stick a fork in this club because they are done. To think that a couple wins over teams like ARI and SEA would have kept them in it is pretty pathetic. I expect Reid to keep his job, but the Castillo experiment was over before it started.
After rising out of the bubble group at the mid-season mark, they've dropped back down to where people thought they belonged. A tougher schedule will do that and they couldn't rise to the challenge(0-3 against top teams).
I have to eat crow for this ranking. I still think Tebow is a glorified backup, but you can't argue with results. Bask in the glory DEN fans and enjoy it while it lasts.
No team has had a bigger rise in the list than MIA. They are still 2-7 against the top half of the league, but give them credit for vastly improving in most areas.
JAX have quietly worked their way out of the bottom tier of the league. They are still average in most areas, but that's a lot better than the teams below them can say.

Give credit to DEN, MIA, and JAX for staying motivated this late into the season. Keep an eye on them during the last month. PHI and CIN remained question marks for most of the year, but November gave us a lot of answers.

Rank (LW) "Suck for Luck" Sweepstakes
Kudos for CLE for remaining a bubble team for half the year, but it was just a matter of time before the string snapped. 0-7 against the top half of the league isn't going to get it done.
Like CLE, they are winless against the top half of the NFL (0-9). The bad news is they are getting worse.
This team is in free fall. They are atrocious in most key areas and Freeman has regressed to the mean.
No big surprises here either. OAK is average across the board and dreadful in red zone/3rd down defense.
SEA have made a nice jump out of the basement. If they had a better defensive line they could actually scare some teams.
The hype machine for Cam had died down, but even Rodgers wouldn't be able to make up for all the team's pitfalls. They can be hopeful for 2012/2013 though.

Some people were a bit surprised when I had them in this group at the mid-season mark, but the truth behind the curtain isn't pretty. Still have the talent to do what they did against JAX, but on most nights they are going to be their own worst enemy.
I'm curious to see what they do about Kolb. They had a cold reality-check that he isn't the 2nd coming of Tom Brady like they had hoped. On the bright side, the defense have made strives in November.
Please go to my contact form if you have any idea what to make of KC this year. I don't have any answers.
The wheels have flown right off this organization. They started the year with so much promise on defense, but once they become average you see what happens.
Had a chance to turn it around against ARI, but 69 points from long drives isn't going to win you many games. Throw them in the hat with PHI and SD as the most disappointing teams of the season.
Is it too early to crown them the winners of the Suck for Luck sweepstakes? I hope for their sake they can at least get 1 win, but nothing in my system indicates that will happen.

If you are like me, my eyes glaze over whenever I see one of these teams on my TV.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

2011 Week 13 NFL Predictions

Sorry for the late picks, but things will return to normal next week including the three-quarter point power rankings, market watch, and full game write-ups.  Week 13 predictions are posted.
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242