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Friday, November 4, 2011

Week 9 NFL Predictions: Teasers of the Week

As a rule of thumb it's best to only include teams in teasers that cross the critical numbers and limit them to 2 teams per.  There are always exceptions to the norm, but this method provides the most value. 

Check out the Sportsbook Review Football Teaser Odds Chart to find out what book will offer you the best value.

Since there are a nice collection of teaser options this week, I'm going to give a quick summary of each game and let you ultimately decide which choices you like best.

I've covered the CHI/PHI, ATL/IND games so let's examine the remaining picks...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints: A lot of people are surprised that this line is over a TD in NO's favor given the way TB has played within the division this year.  If you believe in that theory you can go ahead and take a pass, but I'm not buying it.  This TB defense is very inconsistent and the Superdome is not an easy place to play.  NO have huge advantages on offense and a nice edge with run defense as well.  TB don't have an edge in any meaningful category and they've given up almost twice as many points from long drives as they've gained.  In theory, NO should win this game pretty easily, but just in case TB make a game of it teasing it down is the smart way to go.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans: I've been down on TEN for most of the year and that's not about to change now.  The fact that CJ hasn't gotten going makes this team even less formidable.  Losing Britt hurt them a lot.  Outside of the BAL game, TEN only have wins against bottom-feeders.  At least CIN have a couple wins against middle of the pack teams.  CIN will once again keep this game close with their defense, and could even win the game straight up.  The best advantage they have on offense is with their O-line.  Unless something crazy happens, the winner of this one will be determined in the 4th quarter--in which case having +9 on CIN seems golden.  This is a no-brainer teaser option.

New York Giants vs New England Patriots: I think it's clear by now that this is not the same NE team of old.  There were warning signs with their defense last year, but this year it's even worse. Granted they still manage to get stops when they need them (with the exception of last week), but it's doubtful they are going to win every game by double digits anymore.  At the same time, they have nice matchup advantages all over the field this week.  NY haven't been great on defense so NE should be able to do whatever they want--whether that's run or pass.  NY also haven't been very good running the ball.  Their record is very deceiving.  Essentially, NY is average across the board and only thrive with their D-line and red zone offense.  NE matchup well with their O-line, but are average in red zone defense (which is good considering how many yards they give up).  Throw in the fact that NE is at home and I can't pass up this teaser choice.

Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys: Right now you can find DAL at -11.5 which makes the teaser option even better.  I have no idea why the line is moving in that direction, but this game won't be in doubt for DAL unless Romo completely implodes.  They have monumental advantages on defense and I don't know how SEA is going to score points.  They rarely win the turnover battle, can't drive the field, protect the QB, or avoid penalties.  What is there to like about this matchup?  Romo will have enough time to pick apart the SEA secondary and they'll get more than enough opportunities to work on their red zone offense.  If DAL don't win by at least a TD here I might lose all faith in football. 

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders: Can you please point out to me why DEN have a chance to keep this game competitive?  I should go ahead and take OAK straight against the spread, but with Carson Palmer and a limping McFadden you just never know.  Stranger things have happened in this rivalry, but I'll continue to fade Tim Tebow as long as he is a starting QB in this league.  Even without McFadden OAK should have more than enough success on the ground to dominate this game.  They do give up a lot of points from long drives, but Tebow doesn't have the ability to take advantage.  This game doesn't require much more analysis than that.  Sometimes it really is as simple as that. 
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