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Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 6 NFL Predictions: Quick Hits Edition

Time once again to tour the rest of the schedule for some quick hits on the games I passed on.

PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON: Early action came in on WSH at +1.5 and moved the line, but late action on PHI has moved it back.  This is a very tough game to handicap.  Under normal circumstances I would take the value with WSH due to the numbers, but the question we need to ask ourselves is this--is the PHI team we are seeing the real PHI team or just an underachieving contender figuring things out?  If you go with the former then bet WSH.  If you believe the latter than bet PHI.  There will be value either way.  I follow this PHI team very closely and even I'm not sure.  Most of it rests on Juan Castillo's ability and there are too many red flags to buy in right now.  PHI might be in trouble until after the bye week.

ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY: I'm surprised that there wasn't much sharp interest in STL at +14.5 to start the week, but it seems like nobody like STL anymore.  I'm on the fence.  I think there is potential with that lineup, but they don't have enough quality depth to overcome key injuries.  Losing Amendola really set this offense back as he was Mr Everything.  A lot more was expected out of their offensive line too.  If they were strong in this area I'd probably take a chance on them this week.  But they are in a tough spot.  We have one of the worst teams against one of the best.  Last year Vegas tried to inflate many spreads to even out these types of games but it didn't work.  The only thing holding me back from riding GB is Sam Bradford.  I like this kid and I think he's capable of a backdoor cover if his defense keeps it within three touchdowns.

BUFFALO @ NY GIANTS: Sharps like NY in this spot, but I don't have a strong feeling either way.  I think people began to overrate NY after their win in PHI and again when they pulled out an improbably win against ARI.  I avoided NY in the survivor pools last week because ARI isn't the kind of team they should be struggling against.  Thus their loss vs SEA didn't shock me too much.  Now they play a well-coached and confident BUF team.  If I was forced to make a pick I would go with BUF and the points, but when you plug this matchup into my system it comes out pretty much the same as the line is now.  That's a pass for me.  NYG will have the edge passing while BUF will have opportunities to run.  Not many mismatches anywhere else.

CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND: I haven't seen much interest in this game from sharp money.  Initial action came in on CLE +7 because fundamentally it's a bad line.  In reality OAK should be favored by 3-4 points.  Yet there are a couple non-traditional factors at play here.  First is the Al Davis situation.  Some believe their big emotional letdown is coming after the sky-high win last week.  I don't think that is true.  This will be the first home game since Davis passed on and it should be good enough for another emotional boost this week.  Therefore the line is where I expect it to be.  OAK have a big edge on the ground so if you have McFadden on your fantasy team you're a happy camper, but temper your expectations for the OAK passing game. CLE isn't the most well-oiled machine in the NFL, but they get strong play from both of their lines and give people a scrappy challenge.  Flip a coin.
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