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Monday, October 3, 2011

2011 Week 5 NFL Predictions

UPDATE #3: I'll try to have my Quick Hits on the remaining games on Saturday.  If not, you can send me a message with the contact form for a particular matchup.

UPDATE #2: CIN/DET added as a teaser.  The line is moving for CIN so try to grab them before it hits +1.  I'll have full analysis of all picks posted soon.

UPDATE: Early $$ has come flying in on GB today. The line has moved to -5.5 or -6 at most places!  As I said, I saw significant value in -4 so I hope you grabbed it when it opened.  Passing up on opening lines costs you profit in the long run.  I had GB capped at -6.5 so it's pretty close to where it should be now.  If you missed the opener you have to decide if you want to play GB, tease them, or take a pass. 

Week 5 is always interesting because we finally have enough data to put to use, but not enough to be completely definitive with it.  This week 6 teams are on a bye so we have 3 less games to choose from than usual. 5 more games are being kept off the overnight board thanks to injuries and the Monday Night game. I have GB and DET up as my early picks as there is significant value in each of these numbers. I not only like DET at anything up to -7, but I would even recommend the play if it moves to -7 too.

I'm going to post my updated power rankings this week--likely on Wednesday.  These ratings go beyond your typical ESPN-type "opinion" lists, but I'll have more on that when I post them.  I'll be adding more picks to the card as injury info/line movement becomes available.

Week 5 Predictions
Week 5 MNF 
Week 5 Teasers
Week 5 Power Rankings
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54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

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124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
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1-3 (+5u)

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