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Sunday, October 9, 2011

2011 Week 5 Market Watch

UPDATE (Monday): DET covered for a winning week on sides.  CIN, DET, and NE all covered for the teasers, but I was unlucky to put TB in 2 of them.

I'll have more picks and week 6 power rankings up over the next couple days.

UPDATE (Sunday #2): I'm not sure how many people were cashing their ATL tickets in the 1st quarter, but it's hard to be too worried when Aaron Rodgers is at QB. We need DET to cover tomorrow so we can move onto week 6.  I should have early picks up later tonight or early Monday. Glancing at the board, I don't anticipate having such a small card this week.

The public beat the pros in week 5 with their consensus picks as people are still trying to figure out how to navigate the NFL landscape.  Hang in there!  Learn each week, stay consistent, manage your $$, and shop for the best price! 

UPDATE (Sunday #1):  PIT win a statement game today after the whole world was betting against them.  I would have made the same pick again, but sometimes they just don't pan out.  TB on other hand was a horrible teaser pick by me.  The numbers supported it, but that SF defense is a lot stronger than advertised.  CIN and NE came through, but there's nothing to show for it just yet. GB and DET can still salvage the weekend, but there wasn't a lot I liked this week so I kept the card small.

The fate of the public/pro consensus plays rests on the game tonight.  Squares like GB no matter what the spread is, sharps liked GB -4 and ATL +6.

Each week I'll keep an eye on how the public and the pros are doing with their top picks and review what went wrong and what went right as the season unfolds.  The picks below are in order from the most selected to least selected among the top 5.

You will often see line differences between the public and pros picks for the same game because two-thirds of the public pick their games on Saturday/Sunday while the pros pick earlier in the week.

Market Watch

Public Consensus Top 5 Picks

SD -4
GB -6
NYG -9.5
CIN +1.5
NO -6.5

Record to date: 11-13-1

Hilton Contest Consensus Top 5 Picks

PHI -2.5
CIN +2.5
NYJ +9
ATL +6
TEN +3.5

Record to date: 11-11-3
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ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
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Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

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ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
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Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

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ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
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Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

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ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


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Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242