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Friday, September 23, 2011

Week 3 NFL Predictions: Quick Hits Edition

For latest odds check out one of my trusted sportsbooks - 5 Dimes, Bodog or Intertops.

My quick hit thoughts on the rest of the board...

Many people overlooking JAX in this one. Their defense hasn't been bad and they should give them a chance to win.  Lewis will return to give Gabbert a nice passing option in his 1st career start. Gamble is expected to play, but he's nursing an ankle injury.  CAR already lost Davis and Beason which has seriously downgraded their LB corps.  Despite all the glitzy headlines for Newton, CAR have dramatically underperformed in their yardage to points ratio and turnovers/penalties are a concern.  CAR will be jacked by a hopeful home crowd though.  The public are on CAR huge.  I lean toward JAX and the points, but I don't feel strongly about it.

Sharps like CLE at anything under -3, but they would flip to MIA if the line moves to a field goal. Public like MIA.  I believe MIA is the better team and it's temping to take them, but I can't right now.  I don't like what I'm seeing or hearing out of their camp.  Henne and Sparano both on the hot seat.  Daboll came from CLE, but it's a new system so his insights will be minimal.  His offense is underperforming and players are openly confused.  Davis is out on defense which will make life easier for McCoy.  The only clear edge I see in this game is home field advantage, yet that is where MIA has had most of their success recently.

Big sharp money is on CIN, but news late in the week regarding Benson and Simpson have raised the red flags. I'd be surprised if the line moved to -3. CIN also lost Shipley for the season in week 2.  This leaves them thin at WR because Green will play with a hurt toe. CIN's offense has been miles better than SF's thus far, but SF are getting points from special teams/turnovers. Smith had a concussion and Edwards is out. Gore has got nothing on the ground despite being healthy.  Crabtree will return, but not at 100%.  CIN couldn't sell out their home opener.  Stay away from this game.

Depending where you look, this game could be -3 or -3.5. At -3 NY will see most of the action.  At -3.5 there is a greater chance of balance as the home team looks appealing with the hook. No surprise that the public are big on NY even with the hook. OAK's defense has been very leaky this season giving up a ton of points from long drives.  They have a bunch of playmakers and scrubs mixed together.  OAK is missing receivers, NYJ are missing Mangold (a HUGE loss). A rookie center replaces him. I have a strong lean on OAK and I might add it to the card today or tomorrow.

Ugly game here.  Pros love the critical numbers. They'll play ARI at -3 and SEA at +3.5.  Wells pulled a hammy in practice and might not be able to go. Kolb is overrated, but he's better than Jackson. Rice will play with an injured shoulder.  ARI's defense is god awful so SEA have a chance--especially with their home crowd.  Neither team know how to control the clock or score on long drives. Most of ARI's points have come from big plays. Nothing in this game would surprise me. Skip it.  If you do play it get the best number.

Not much to say here. I'll update things tomorrow after the final injury reports come out.  5 Dimes has this game at WSH +5.  If this number sticks tomorrow I'm going to play it. DAL is in trouble this week with all their injuries and WSH's defense can keep it close.  It's also a national TV game with two divisional rivals.
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