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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

2011 Week 1 NFL Predictions

The regular season is just around the corner!  Week 4 NFL-X action is in the books and it capped off 8 straight preseason winning weeks.

But now it's time to turn our attention to the real show.  As it stands now the action sits on 10 of the 16 week 1 favorites.  Many sharps believe this will be a year of "haves" and "have nots".  They also think there will be much fewer surprises to start the year than previous seasons.

Do I believe this too?  I'm halfway there. Nothing in the preseason has really changed my opinion of things and I believe the current point spreads are very sharp (keep an eye on what the public does over the next 10 days).  But until we see all these teams in action we don't really know who's ahead of the learning curve and who has a ways to go.  I'm taking a bit more of a selective approach to start 2011, but I feel as confident as ever in my picks.

I won't be playing many totals this season because they jumped the shark in 2010.  If you only concentrate on my predictions for sides, I almost hit 60%.  The rule changes have encouraged far more scoring and old "under strategies" no longer apply.  This season another curve ball is being thrown into the mix with the kickoff rule.  How will all this shake out with totals?  We'll see.  But I know what my strengths are and I know when to back off when something isn't working.  If I catch wind of a trend or see a total that can't be passed up, I won't hesitate to add it to the card.

I'd like to also take a moment to thank everyone for their comments, mochas, and overall support.  It's very much appreciated and my goal is to continue and pump out winners and have an even better season than last year.  We're all in this together to beat the books and if I've helped you with your picks that's the bottom line.  I love to cap games, beat the point spread, and write about football.  This doesn't mean that I can reveal my system, but I provide as much information as possible to give you more to think about.

I encourage you to continue with the comments and questions.  If you just want to say thanks, say that I suck, or just want to talk football/handicapping--let me know.

Most of all, best of luck this season!  Let's get it.

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