Wednesday, August 31, 2011

These are my top 50 player props for the 2011 NFL season.  I would not wager more than a half unit on any of these because at the end of the day they are just props and carry a large degree of variance.  They are more intended for some extra fun for those that like a little bit extra on the games.  The public love to bet the over on the skill position players, but the best rule of thumb for season-long props is the under due to the injury factor.  Most (if not all) players suffer some kind of injury of one kind or another throughout the season.  It usually only takes one or two missed games before their projected totals become unattainable.  Players with an injury history and/or age concerns are primary targets for these props.  Also, players with a high reputation or too much hype will have inflated lines.  All the following props can all be found at Bodog.



Kevin Kolb U3650 Passing Yards
Not enough targets, unproven, questionable O-line.

Todd Heap U625 Receiving Yards
Injury history, unproven QB.

Michael Turner U1250 Rushing Yards
Shift in offensive philosophy, aging.

Ricky Williams U450 Rushing Yards
Aging, new offense, non-guaranteed reps.

Ed Reed U5.5 Interceptions
Injury concerns.

Fred Jackson U800 Rushing Yards
In competition for #1 RB spot, time-share, won't be playing with a lead a lot.

Shawn Merriman U5.5 Sacks
Major injury concerns.

Cam Newton U2750 Passing Yards
Very raw, might not start entire season, limited preparation time.

Brandon Lafell U500 Receiving Yards
Rookie QB, too much competition for #2 WR spot, unproven.

Jeremy Shockey U300 Receiving Yards
Behind Olsen, rookie QB, injury concerns.

Marion Barber U450 Rushing Yards
Limited reps, injury concerns.

Andy Dalton U2700 Passing Yards
Rookie QB, bad organization, raw receiving options.

Cedric Benson U1100 Rushing Yards
Will face 8 in the box, questionable motivation, off-field concerns.

Colt McCoy U3250 Passing Yards
New system, no deep threat receiving options, over-hyped.

DeMarcus Ware U14.5 Sacks
Will see first signs of production slip.

Knowshon Moreno U850 Rushing Yards
Injury concerns, time-share.

Jahvid Best U1050 Rushing/Receiving Yards
Injury concerns.

Brandon Pettigrew O550 Receiving Yards
Will face favorable matchups, potent offense, under-the-radar tight end.

Will Ndamukong Suh get fined by the NFL during the season?
Yes. Already stated he won't change his playing style after his preseason fine.

Donald Driver U575 Receiving Yards
Will see less targets, stacked WR corp, aging, injury concern.

Arian Foster U1300 Rushing Yards
Injury concerns, won't be a secret to opposing defenses in 2011.

Andre Johnson U1400 Receiving Yards
Injury concerns.

Joseph Addai U750 Rushing Yards
Injury concerns, time-share.

Austin Collie U775 Receiving Yards
Injury concerns, too much depth at WR.

Dallas Clark U900 Receiving Yards
Injury concerns, aging.

David Garrard U2500 Passing Yards
Might lose his job, injury concerns, aging.

Jamaal Charles O1250 Rushing Yards
Could win rushing title, will see increased reps.

Reggie Bush U650 Rushing Yards
Can't run between the tackles, specialty player, injury concerns, change in offensive philosophy.

Donovan Mcnabb U3200 Passing Yards
Aging, injury concerns, questionable receiving targets, could lose his job.

Adrian Peterson U1375 Rushing Yards
Will face 8 in the box, injury concerns.

Jared Allen U11.5 Sacks
Lost quality players on the D-line, aging, more double-coverage.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis U800 Rushing Yards
Belichick too unpredictable with his RBs, unproven.

Drew Brees U4500 Receiving Yards
Inflated line, improved running game, tougher schedule.

Mark Ingram U850 Rushing Yards
Rookie RB, time-share.

Eli Manning U3900 Passing Yards
Lost Boss and Smith, will rely heavily on running game, inconsistent QB.

Ladainian Tomlinson U800 Rushing Yards
Aging, injury concerns, time-share, less reps, wears down.

Jason Campbell U3200 Passing Yards
Bad WR targets, injury concerns, run-first team, inconsistent QB.

Terrelle Pryor U0.5 Starts
Too raw, no preparation, low on depth chart.

Michael Vick U3500 Passing Yards
Could regress, never a proficient passer, injury concerns.

LeSean McCoy O9.5 Rushing/Receiving TDs
Underrated RB on the rise, elite pass-catcher, safety outlet for Vick.

James Harrison U10.5 Sacks
Could start the year slow after offseason back surgery, injury concerns.

Antonio Gates U1025 Receiving Yards
Injury concerns.

Michael Crabtree U750 Receiving Yards
New system, injury concerns, unproven, bad QB.

Tavaris Jackson U2475 Passing Yards
Horrible QB, could lose job.

Marshawn Lynch U800 Rushing Yards
Injury concerns, bad offense.

Sidney Rice U875 Receiving Yards
Great talent, bad QB.

Steven Jackson U1150 Rushing Yards
Lost a step, less reps, aging, injury concerns.

Kellen Winslow U725 Receiving Yards
Injury concerns, overrated QB.

Matt Hasselbeck U3000 Passing Yards
New system, aging, injury concerns, could lose job.