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Saturday, July 30, 2011

2011 NFL Season Preview

We've all had enough of the lockout talk.  It's time to talk some football!  You can forget about ESPN's yearly "strength of schedule" reports or misguided "power rankings", because you won't find that kind of fluff here.  When it comes to the real nuts and bolts of stat evaluation and finding you the best value against the spread, I got it covered.

What are the main areas of strength and weakness for each team heading into the preseason?  Will they go over or under the expected season win totals?  Who has the best chance to win their division?  Will underdogs dominate week 1 like they did last season?  Why is the '50 rule' and the 'points per drive' category so important to winning and losing?  Have totals really jumped the shark or will things return to normal in 2011?  What day of the week is the best to take a favorite or an underdog?   Are teasers worth your while?  Should you skip the preseason?

These are just some of the questions that will be answered in the coming weeks.   With any luck, the lockout will be over soon and teams will begin the frantic race for free agents and rookie signings.  In the meantime I'll be completing the makeover of the site and getting some preview articles ready for publish.  It should be another great year of football!

Setting the stage for free agency and training camp ....

AFC Overviews

NFC Overviews


Handicapping Toolbox

Now that the lockout is OFFICIALLY behind us we can look forward to a WILD week of movement.  Hundreds of players could be in new uniforms or left on the street when the dust settles.  Teams will obviously go up or down the rankings a bit depending how the rosters shake out, but most of the time the lines don't dramatically move unless there is a significant up/downgrade at QB or a large number of meaningful additions/subtractions.  There are some teams with a lot of high profile free agents or large cap space out there right now.

I'll have some early thoughts on week 1 games and some things to consider for those matchups coming soon.  The condensed offseason has created a different approach for the season openers and some unique opportunities to cash in.

2010 Power Rankings/Strength of Schedule 

How has the lockout impacted predictions for the preseason/September?

List of key factors


2011 Custom Strength of Schedule


2011 Division Winners Predictions


AFC Season Win Totals Preview

NFC Season Win Totals Preview
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242