Sunday, January 9, 2011

UPDATE #2: Sunday came to an early end as KC played like many expected them to.  Undisciplined play, bad coaching, and lack of ball protection turned a close game at halftime into a blowout.   It's not like KC didn't have their chances though.  The Charles fumble and failed fourth down attempt in the first half kept BAL in the game.  Good teams overcome these setbacks, but instead KC imploded. 

I haven't had a bad week like this since week 4 so I'm not going to change anything going into next week.  Sometimes things just don't work out as expected.  I'll have early picks up for the Divisional weekend up later tonight or tomorrow if I see an early line worth jumping on. 

UPDATE: Saturday is in the books and it was the day of the upsets.   I knew that the NO/SEA line was inflated, but I didn't really believe SEA could win the game outright.  That game will go down as one of the great upsets in recent history as a 7-9 team eliminates the defending Super Bowl champs.  Give credit to SEA for overcoming an early 10 point deficit and riding the electric home crowd.  The NO defensive backs got caught cheating numerous times and blew assignment after assignment.  There was some late action from the pros on SEA, but the public went heavy on NO. 

I wish I could say that the Colts fans were as enthusiastic as those in SEA because they did their usual ho-hum 'Peyton will win it in the end' routine, but they left too much time on the clock and couldn't make a stop in the second half if their lives depended on it.   The game was interesting from the standpoint that it reflected how the teams played earlier in the season rather than down the stretch.  NY committed to the run in the second half and IND suddenly couldn't contain them.  LT looked good, but the IND backs did not.  It was if the last month of the season didn't happen.

This sets us up for a rematch between NY and NE and the early line is already set at -9.   I expect KC's home crowd to have a similar impact on the game as SEA's did and at +3.5, I might make a smaller play on that.  A couple side notes for GB, too.  When Rodgers throws 2 TD's in a game they are 8-0 this season, and they haven't trailed by more than 7 points all year long.