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Monday, January 24, 2011

Super Bowl XLV Update

UPDATE #3: There hasn't been much movement since the last update.  The game is only a few hours away and the line is stuck at GB -3.  You will have to pay more juice to bring it down to -2.5, but you should have already grabbed them by now if that's the side you are playing.  Amazingly, the last 50 000 wagers have not changed anything.  The bookmakers have done a great job at keeping the money split on both sides.  It should be a great game and good luck to all!

UPDATE #2:  There hasn't been a lot of line movement over the weekend, but most books are currently carrying GB -3 with + odds.   You can still buy the half point to bring it down to -2.5 at regular juice.   The last 20,000 public bets have brought down the PIT favor from 55% to 51%, so we could see GB at -3 for good.  This is a little surprising based on what we saw last week.  I'll continue to update line movement news as the week plays out.

UPDATE #1: Information is coming in regarding the early money on this game.  Of interest, the books basically had this game as a pick em during the PIT/NYJ game, but when NY made a comeback they opened the line at -2 to compensate for public perception.

At -2 a lot of sharps played GB to win, but when the line moved to -2.5 there was a lot of action on PIT.  There seems to be a lot of different opinions on this game and it's getting unusual action early on.  There have also been a lot of big wagers on the money line for both sides.  55% of the public still like GB to win and cover, but it will be intriguing to see how things shake out over the next 10 days.  Sharps will wait to see who the public take and where the line moves before they step back in.

Most of the 300+ prop bets should be put on the board on Thursday night or early Friday so I'll have a handful of those posted too.
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