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Monday, January 24, 2011

Super Bowl XLV NFL Predictions: Team Props

I would not wager more than a half unit on any of these because at the end of the day they are just game props.  They are more intended for some fun for those that like a little bit extra on the games.  The Super Bowl is the most popular game to wager prop bets on so there are nearly 300+ to choose from. I am not suggesting betting on all of the ones listed below, but these are the ones that I can find some justification for.  Many of the other props available are nothing more than a blind coin flip.  These include everything from Christina Aguilera's hair color or how long she can hold a note during the anthem all the way to Fergie's halftime outfit or whether she'll dress like a Cowboys cheerleader.  They can all be found at  
Team Props
1st team to enter the red zone: Green Bay Packers
This prop is pretty straight forward.  GB have had much more success during the season sustaining long drives.  
Total field goals in the game vs Washington Capitals goals vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Washington
Total TD's in the Super Bowl vs total goals in Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Total Goals
As someone who watches and writes a lot about the NHL, I can confidently say that these two hockey teams have a much better chance at a high scoring affair than a Super Bowl shootout. 

Nielsen Ratings for the Super Bowl: OVER 46 
Last year's Super Bowl received a 46 rating, but this game should surpass that total.   Pittsburgh and Green Bay are arguably the two most public favorite teams in the NFL (sorry Dallas).  The ratings for the Championship games were through the roof and I expect this Super Bowl to set new records.
How many players will be arrested during Super Bowl week: UNDER .5 
Both of these teams are well coached and disciplined.  That doesn't mean that players won't be boneheads, but I'd be very surprised if someone went so far as to get arrested.  You must lay more juice to play the under, but it should be a solid play.
Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first: God  
God is the clear-cut favorite in this category and with good reason.  God is mentioned after a Super Bowl game than any other major sporting event.  Chances are good the MVP will thank their lord and savor above all else.  Teammates would be a close second.  MVP's are quick to deflect the honor and praise those that helped them get there.
Who will the FOX announcers say has better hair - Polamalu vs Matthews: Polamalu 
This might seem like a laughable prop (and it is), but in almost every game either player has played this playoffs there has been a reference to their hair.  If this prop does become relevant, Polamalu will be the clear winner.

How many times will the FOX accouncers mention "lockout" during the game: OVER 1.5
I've done a few of the "specials" props this year and when FOX is involved, they usually go over the total.  This network isn't shy about addressing the topics of the day and the lockout will be a hot button issue.  It could very be the last NFL game played for some time and it will be something the commissioner discusses in his Super Bowl press conference.  I like the chances of them mentioning it at least twice throughout the broadcast.
How many times will Brett Favre be mentioned during the game: OVER 2.5
Considering that FOX is carrying the game, you just know that the comparisons and references to Favre will be mentioned throughout the game.   Possibilities include Rodgers finally escaping Favre's shadow by bringing his team to the Super Bowl, whether or not he wins one as Favre did, and how each of them performed in the big game.
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242