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Monday, January 24, 2011

Super Bowl XLV NFL Predictions: Player Props

I would not wager more than a half unit on any of these because at the end of the day they are just game props.  They are more intended for some extra fun for those that like a little bit extra on the games.  The Super Bowl is the most popular game to wager prop bets on so let's take a look at the early ones I like.   They can all be found at  I will have more as they become released.

Playoff MVP
Rodgers 7/4
Jennings 12/1
Mendenhall 15/2

I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl so I would go with these two guys.  Jennings has been on fire all post-season so he's a good underdog for the award.  If you are going with the Steelers my underdog pick would be Mendenhall.  Big Ben might receive the award because he was unfairly passed over for Holmes the last time they won it, but if PIT's offense is going to win the game it will be in big thanks to their running game.

Big Ben 12.5 Rushing Yards: OVER
Ben vs Rodgers Rushing Yards: Ben +7.5

Rodgers vs Ben Passing Yards: Rodgers -35.5
Rodgers vs Ben Pass Completions: Rodgers -3.5

As good as Rodgers is running the ball, I think Ben could be the more active quarterback here.  Take into consideration these factors:
Rodgers has been running more cautiously since his concussion.
Ben will have worse protection than Rodgers so he is more apt to leave the pocket and look for first downs or positive yardage. 
Rodgers will have a greater advantage in the passing game so he likely won't need to make things happen with his feet as much as Ben.  This is also a good reason to consider taking Rodgers in the passing game, despite the spread. 

Running Backs
Mendenhall vs Starks Receiving Yards: Mendenhall -5.5

As mentioned I expect GB to have more success pressuring Ben so I expect Mendenhall to be more involved in the short passing game and he will also be looked at as the check down receiver more than Starks.

Jennings vs Wallace Receptions: Jennings -1.5

Jennings has been on fire all post-season.  I see no reason to shy away from him now..

Will Suisham Miss a Field Goal
Yes 4/1

Will Crosby Miss a Field Goal
Yes 5/1

Crosby vs Suisham Points: Crosby -.5

Longest Successful Field Goal: Green Bay Packers

Both Suisham and Crosby have been good in the 40-49 yard range this year, but Suisham only has one successful field goal beyond 50 yards in the last 3 years.   Crosby averages five per season.  The pressure of completing a field goal is also much more amplified in the Super Bowl than any other game.  Look for both coaches to take their points when they can get them and go with the 3 instead of going for it on 4th down.  The chances of at least one of them missing a kick is worth the gamble in my opinion.   GB have also been betting moving the ball down the field this year and coming away with points from long drives.  Go with Crosby to get more points than Suisham. 

Brandon Jackson Rushing/Receiving Yards vs Carey Price Saves on Feb 6th: Carey Price

There are other specials available involving NBA players, but I don't follow basketball whatsover so I decided to go with the NHL prop.  Jackson's touches have gone way down since Starks has entered the mix and PIT are fantastic vs opposing running backs.  I'll roll with the safer bet and take goaltender Carey Price.
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Overall NHL Records

Overall: 1314-1239-38 (+325.39u)

ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
Puckline: 41-54-1 (+2.22)

Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
Parlays: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

Records Archive

NHL 2017/2018

Overall: 78-94 (-12.81u)

54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

Player Props: 0-0
Team Props:


NHL 2016/2017

Overall: 210-219-1 (+50.34u)

124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

Player Props: 9-6 (+4.2)
Team Props:
10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

NHL 2015/2016

Overall: 223-194-1 (+106.79u)

ML: 119-104 (+64.4)
Regulation: 75-69 (+27.84u)
Puckline: 0-5 (-10u)

Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
Team Props: 13-6 (+15.8u)
Totals: 0-0
: 0-0
Grand Salamis: 0-0

Futures: 0-3 (-6u)

NHL 2014/2015

Overall: 331-357-10 (+11.25u)

ML: 95-105 (+4.66u)
Regulation: 100-94 (+17.76u)
Puckline: 31-38 (+8.02u)

Player Props: 48-39-7 (+8.65u)
Team Props: 17-10 (+13.77u)
Totals: 29-44-3 (-32.03u)
: 9-20 (-5.3u)
Grand Salamis: 1-3 (-4.28u)

Futures: 1-4 (0u)

NHL 2013/2014

Overall: 472-375-26 (+169.82u)

ML: 144-133 (+53.69u)
Regulation: 126-96 (+58.52u)
Puckline: 4-4-1 (+2.6u)

Player Props: 94-54-16 (+34.62u)
Team Props: 17-8 (+16.07u)
Totals: 84-72-9 (+11.66u)
Grand Salamis: 2-6 (-8.84u)

Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


Overall: 23-20 (+20.38u)

ML: 7-4 (+12.12u)
Regulation: 1-1 (+2u)
Puckline: 10-7 (+9.06u)

Totals: 4-0 (+7.2u)

Futures: 1-8 (-10u)


Overall ATS: 277-252-21

Playoffs ATS: 23-17-2
Regular Season ATS: 194-193-18
Preseason ATS: 59-41-1

Totals: 54-57-2
Teasers: 113-95-3
Props: 288-242