6 Point Teasers
Chargers -3 & Falcons -1
Steelers -2.5 & Packers -1
Falcons -1 & Packers -1
The GB/DET game is an interesting one. DET has been incredible against the spread this season. Most people fade them because of their record, but they always seem to forget they are playing the line, not straight up. This is part of the reason why I teased GB down instead of taking them on the regular line. This doesn't mean I don't think GB can cover, because I like their chances to, but DET is a team that knows how to pick up garbage points. If you've read any of my previous write-ups you'll know that they are young, talented, and want to improve on offense. These are great ingredients to drive down the field and put up points. Therefore, GB could easily be leading this game by double digits with the game in hand, but DET will go down and put up a touchdown against a defense playing soft coverage.
In this game GB is going to have a significant advantage passing the ball. Most of the time it is DET who have that advantage, but GB match up pretty good against them in that area this week. GB also do a great job protecting Rodgers. Another advantage that DET usually have, but not in this one. I don't expect DET to get dominated on offense, but they simply won't be able to slow down GB long enough to come out with a win. Even though it is a divisional game at home, DET will come up short. If you need more evidence, GB rank near the top in points from long drives, turnover differential, and red zone/third down offense. Feel free to tease them down with confidence.
Falcons -1 & Browns +7.5
Another good option to include with ATL is CLE. Right now I am seeing CLE +1 across the board, so I would hold off on them unless it moves back up to +1.5 though. It seems most books know this and have moved them out of the teaser window (another great reason to get the early lines). In their matchup with BUF, look for Peyton Hillis to have a monster game. This might not be breaking news because we all know how bad BUF is against the run, but it is the main mismatch of the game. CLE will also have a nice edge in the red zone and on third down. BUF have had problems stopping people from driving the field all year, and once opponents get inside the 20 they usually score. CLE rank better in turnover differential and completed plays per game, too. In all other important categories they are pretty even. I can understand why the line is only +1, especially since BUF is at home. However, they have enough advantages to include them in a teaser and not lose any sleep over it.
Chiefs +13 & Rams +15.5