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Monday, December 6, 2010

Week 14 NFL Predictions: Teasers of the Week

With PIT dropping to -8.5 at most places I have gone ahead and added them in a teaser.  I have also added a late teaser with SD and ATL to buy back on the standard KC play.

6 Point Teasers

Chargers -3 & Falcons -1

Steelers -2.5 & Packers -1

Falcons -1 & Packers -1
Check my weekly picks for the analysis for the ATL/CAR matchup.

The GB/DET game is an interesting one.  DET has been incredible against the spread this season.  Most people fade them because of their record, but they always seem to forget they are playing the line, not straight up.  This is part of the reason why I teased GB down instead of taking them on the regular line.  This doesn't mean I don't think GB can cover, because I like their chances to, but DET is a team that knows how to pick up garbage points.  If you've read any of my previous write-ups you'll know that they are young, talented, and want to improve on offense.  These are great ingredients to drive down the field and put up points.  Therefore, GB could easily be leading this game by double digits with the game in hand, but DET will go down and put up a touchdown against a defense playing soft coverage.  

In this game GB is going to have a significant advantage passing the ball.  Most of the time it is DET who have that advantage, but GB match up pretty good against them in that area this week.  GB also do a great job protecting Rodgers.  Another advantage that DET usually have, but not in this one.  I don't expect DET to get dominated on offense, but they simply won't be able to slow down GB long enough to come out with a win.  Even though it is a divisional game at home, DET will come up short.  If you need more evidence, GB rank near the top in points from long drives, turnover differential, and red zone/third down offense.  Feel free to tease them down with confidence.

Falcons -1 & Browns +7.5
Another good option to include with ATL is CLE.  Right now I am seeing CLE +1 across the board, so I would hold off on them unless it moves back up to +1.5 though.  It seems most books know this and have moved them out of the teaser window (another great reason to get the early lines).  In their matchup with BUF, look for Peyton Hillis to have a monster game.  This might not be breaking news because we all know how bad BUF is against the run, but it is the main mismatch of the game.  CLE will also have a nice edge in the red zone and on third down.  BUF have had problems stopping people from driving the field all year, and once opponents get inside the 20 they usually score.  CLE rank better in turnover differential and completed plays per game, too.  In all other important categories they are pretty even.  I can understand why the line is only +1, especially since BUF is at home. However, they have enough advantages to include them in a teaser and not lose any sleep over it. 

Chiefs +13 & Rams +15.5
Two underdogs that look great for a teaser are KC and STL.  I've given my thoughts on the KC game, so let's take a loser look at STL vs NO.  Frankly I was a little surprised at the opening line.  When I evaluated the game I thought NO should be favored by a touchdown.  Instead Vegas have them at almost 10 point underdogs!  If the line moves to +10 I might be including them as a regular pick, but for now I'll be more than happy to tease them.  STL has been playing pretty solid ball of late as Bradford continues to develop.  Having Jackson in the backfield definitely helps, and their defense is coming along like I expected it to under coach Spags.  NO will have the edge passing the ball though.  This is one of the biggest reasons they are favored by so much.  They also need this game to keep pace with ATL so the motivation will be there to put this game out of reach.  It won't be easy for STL to go into that dome and come away with a win straight up.  However, I do like them to keep it within two touchdowns.  I don't see them getting blown out in this one, and even if they are down late they have the ability to pick up points in garbage time.  This is an offense that can move the ball.   NO rank pretty high on red zone/third down offense, but STL have done an equally good job defensively in those categories.   NO also average a touchdown more per game from long drives, but I expect STL to make them earn most of their points.  I don't think it will be a cake walk kind of game.  Much like KC, I really like what I'm seeing from STL.  They are a team definitely going in the right direction.    

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