Monday, November 8, 2010

Market Watch
Season overall records to date:
Public Consensus Picks: 51-71-7 (41.8%)
Hilton Contest Consensus Picks: 18-23-3 (44.9%)
Back-to-back Hilton Champion Steve Fezzik: 17-25-2 (40.5%)

Week 9 is officially in the books.  I missed the MNF teaser by 1 point as totals continue to haunt me this season.  Teasers still went 3-1 for the week and both MNF props cashed which helped soften the blow.   Sides stay hot with a 4-1-2 weekend, but in hindsight I should have never picked the NE game.  When it fell to -3.5 I couldn't resist to buy it down to -3 and I paid for it.  It was a trap game and a bad pick on my part.

Speaking of traps, it seems like totals have completely jumped the shark this year so I'll continue to stay cautious with those.  They have really taken a bite out of my profit margin this season, but I've already overcome those losses with my regular picks. 

In the marketplace, I'm happy to report that the public finally had their first winning week of the 2010 season going 7-5-1.   I was beginning to think they would go the entire season without a profitable week!  The sharps didn't do as well.  Hilton consensus picks went 2-3 and Steve Fezzik had his second donut of the season with a 0-5 record.  I am a little surprised the pros are still struggling at this point, but there is still a lot of season to go. 

Looking ahead to week 10, I have three picks up and might have another one or two tomorrow after I review the games involving tonight's teams.  It's interesting that so many games are around a pick em and within three points.  I'm guessing the books are wanting to stay out of the teaser window which is why they have so many games at -1 or PK.  Many of the current lines are pretty close to what I have so there could be fewer picks this week, but I'll continue to monitor line movement to see if I can find an edge.   However, I'm not going to force picks out.  If there are only three games I see a clear edge in that's all I will play.  I'll have write-ups for the games tomorrow.