Monday, November 29, 2010

Market Watch
Season overall records to date:
Public Consensus Picks: 72-93-8 (43.6%)
Hilton Contest Consensus Picks: 28-31-2 (47.6)

It was another big day of profit as sides went 3-2-1, totals went 1-0, and teasers 3-0.  We are almost at the three-quarter mark of the season and things are looking very good so far.  My system has been an unstoppable force since I began to use it in week 5.  I haven't had a losing day since week 4 and I'm close to 80% on sides and teasers over the last couple of months.  I still don't expect to continue at this rest for the final leg of the season, but it would take a monumental collapse to finish the year in the red. 

The public fell flat on their face yesterday after killing the books in week 11.  The final tally was 5-10 ATS with the MNF game pending.  This isn't a surprise because the public love to bet the favorite.  Once they have a big week they are going to jump on the favorites the following week even more.  This is the time of season when we have a pretty solid grip on who is good and who is not so it sets the perfect trap for the average better.  The more serious betters in the Hilton contest went 3-2 with their consensus picks this week.  It was interesting that the GB/ATL game was the most heavily picked game with almost half on each side. 

After skipping totals in week 11 I picked the best candidate for an over yesterday and it cashed with ease.  The traditional strategies of picking unders hasn't worked this season and if you look at the lines the last few weeks you'll realize that the books have made significant adjustments this season.  The average totals in years past were 37, 41, and 44 depending on the matchup and from what I can see those have all been bumped up 3 points, if not more.  

Next week I will have my three-quarter way review posted to see how things are going in all areas and what to expect in the final month of the season.  My current win streak is at 7 weeks so hopefully I can keep that going. 

I don't have a play for tonight because the line seems to be pretty accurate.  Best of luck to everyone who has tailed and thanks for the emails.  I try to reply to all of them as soon as I can.