Chiefs -1 & Steelers -1.5
Chiefs -1 & Titans -1
Ravens PK & Saints -1.5 & Chargers PK
CAR's defense is actually not all that bad. They are on the field a lot and can't afford to have breakdowns or they lose. Despite the stats and the circumstances they have played ok this year. Having said that, BAL come into this game with huge advantages all over the field. CAR is averaging a league low 4.5 points a game from long drives. This is reflected in their red zone and third down stats. They simply can't score enough to stay in a game. I could go on about this matchup, but this is enough reason to take BAL in a pick em.
NO is coming off a bye to host the up and down Seahawks. Hasselbeck says he'll play even with a screwed up wrist on his non-throwing hand, but will it really matter? NO is going to dominate the game in the air on both sides. SEA don't have the kind of power running game needed to keep Brees off the field and they can't sustain drives. Even if SEA gets in the red zone they aren't going to score touchdowns. NO is slowly starting to get healthy and they are looking more like the defending champs than they did early in the season. They should have little trouble winning by at least a field goal.
Lastly, I love SD to win straight up at home against DEN. You might be hesitant about this based on how SD has looked this season and how DEN looked last week, but you can ignore all that. SD is favored by 10 points with good reason. They are going to dominate this game on the ground and Rivers was the first half MVP. He might lose that award if Vick keeps playing the way he is, but Rivers has been on fire game in and game out. Try to name his receivers over the last few weeks. Even with no-names he puts up over 300 yards without much trouble. They haven't been great on the road, but they are not easy to play at home. SD might not be as healthy this week as they hoped to be coming off a bye, but they hold advantages over DEN across the entire board. There isn't a single category where DEN matches up better. Yes, that even includes special teams.