Monday, November 15, 2010

Market Watch
Season overall records to date:
Public Consensus Picks: 56-79-7 (41.5%)
Hilton Contest Consensus Picks: 21-25-3 (45.7%)

WoW.  I had a very good feeling PHI would cover the spread, but 59 points?  You can bet the bookmakers are going to inflate PHI next week, but I'll look into that matchup tomorrow.   The win on MNF capped off another great week going 5-2 ATS and 2-0 on teasers.  Both props cashed on MNF which brings it up to 6-6 for the week.  I am now riding a 6 week winning streak and I have no intention on stopping now.  I'll continue to post what I think are the best value plays for the week.  It's easy to get overconfident when things are going good, but it's important to stay disciplined and trust the system.   In order to profit long-term you need to stay on budget and stay away from impulsive wagers.

Looking around the marketplace it wasn't good news for the public consensus picks.  After the MNF game they ended the week 5-8 ATS.   The Hilton Contest consensus picks were 3-2.  I stopped keeping track of back-to-back champion Steve Fezzik's picks because he is clearly out of the contest and I am sure he is changing his strategy to make up ground.  

I have some week 11 picks up already and I'll be adding a few more soon.  It is interesting to see how the books are handling this NFL season.  More games than ever before are hovering within 3 points and big favorites continue to receive inflated lines.   Most of the time I won't play double-digit favorites, but they are great for teasers.  I'll have full write-ups early tomorrow and updates on line movement all week long.