Saturday, October 30, 2010

Chiefs -1.5 & Jets PK
I have already talked about why I love KC this week and touched a little on the GB/NYJ game.  I like GB/NYJ to go over 42, but I expect NY to come out on top of that matchup.  I'm not about to lay the -6 because Rodgers has the ability to keep it close and pick up garbage points in the 4th quarter, but it is going to be very difficult for them to win outright.  They are in the classic letdown spot coming off a big night game win over Grandpa Favre and face a rested NY team coming off a bye.  Even without this factor they do not matchup well.  This game is much like the CIN/ATL game last week where I played both the over and ATL in that too.  NY will dominate the game on the ground, but GB will get some points through the air.  However, GB's offense isn't balanced enough to overcome the pressure that coach Ryan will bring.  If they decide to max protect and run two receivers against double coverage, I like NY in that scenario.  GB will likely try to spread them out and gash them with the short passing game to supplement for the lack of a run game, but they will ultimately come up short with that approach.   Go with both home teams in this teaser.  They are the best teaser candidates on the board.  Prediction: Bank KC -1.5 & NYJ PK.

Chiefs -1.5 & Patriots PK
Including KC in both teasers might be the kiss of death because this season 6 of my 11 teaser losses came from one team tanking it.  The Colts vs the Jaguars and the Saints vs Browns.  However, if anyone thought either team would win outright then they have magical powers that I do not.  I am sticking by the Chiefs this week which is why I combined them with the Patriots as well.  The MIN/NE game has been off the board all week long because of the Favre fiasco, but there isn't much difference between a healthy Jackson and a banged up Favre at this point.  Is there?  Regardless of who starts, I see little reason why NE will lose this game straight up.  MIN has a slight edge through the air on paper, but their QB situation nullifies that.  NE's defense isn't about to morph into the 85' Bears anytime soon, but they are a young group getting coached up and are making strides.  Brady is still dinking and dunking his way down the field without Moss, but they are a well-oiled machine at home.  They are averaging over 17 points from long drives per game which tells you they can score with or without Moss.   Stick a fork in MIN on Sunday because they will be officially done after this one.  Prediction: Bank KC -1.5 & NE PK.