Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Player props yielded a slight profit last week so let's keep it going in week 7.  I would not wager more than a half unit on any of these because at the end of the day they are just game props.  The are more intended for some extra fun for those that like a little bit extra on the games.  With that said, let's take a look at the game props I like for week 7.   They can all be found at Bodog.com. 

Favre vs Rodgers More Passing Yards: Rodgers -29.5

As I said last week I've been fading Favre all year long with great success.  MIN doesn't match up well through the air in this one.  I thought Rodgers would be slowed down last week without his favorite target Finley in the lineup, but I was wrong.  I'll be more than happy to lay the 30 yards and cash on Favre for another week.

Favre vs Rodgers More TD Passes: Rodgers

Favre might have Moss now, but he's still outmatched in this game.  Don't expect a repeat performance from last year in Lambeau field.  GB have a better pass defense at the moment so ride Rodgers in this one too.

Steven Jackson 112.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards: OVER

If you are a fantasy owner you know that S-Jax has a great matchup this week against TB.  He showed us last game that he's completely back from his injury and he's running hard to become the all-time franchise leader in rushing yards.

DeAngelo Williams 70.5 Rushing Yards: UNDER

D-Will has gone over 70 yards rushing only once this year.  They are really have problems in the run game with Otah injured.   I think he and Stewart do enough to pull out this win this week, but until D-Will raises his game I'll continue to fade him.

Ray Rice 95.5 Rushing Yards: OVER

It is absurd how many yards the Bills are giving up on the ground this year.   BAL love to run up the score at home and will feed Rice until his legs fall off.  The only way he doesn't hit 100 yards is this game is an injury.

Brent Celek 50.5 Receiving Yards: OVER

TEN has been much worse against the pass than the statistics show.  In this game with D-Jax out Kolb will look for Celek early and often.  I would like this prop even with D-Jax playing, but Celek is primed for a big day without him.


Chris Johnson 115.5 Rushing Yards: UNDER

At first glance this doesn't look like a good bet.  CJ is obviously among the best and he could break off long runs at any given time.  However, with Young likely out there won't be the same kind of running lanes that there will be with Collins under center.  PHI has also shutdown Turner and Gore in back-to-back weeks despite losing Bunkley in the middle.


Jamaal Charles 67.5 Rushing Yards: OVER

I had to do a double take when I saw this number.  Charles has been averaging amazing numbers per rush this year and he's still putting up good totals despite being in a time share with Jones.   JAX is going to give up a ton of rushing yards in this game and I expect Charles to go over 100.

Brett Favre 235.5 Passing Yards: UNDER

I should just call this blog entry the Brett Favre props of the week.  As mentioned last week I've faded Favre all year and made a small fortune.  I'm amazed that they keep putting up lines this high.   Last week he didn't even come close.  He's old, banged up, and forcing things.   Just like D-Will, until he proves otherwise I'll continue to bet against him.