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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Week 7 NFL Predictions: Monday Night Football Edition

BONUS PROP: Felix Jones 65.5 Rushing Yards: UNDER
Jones is averaging 48.5 yards per game up to this point in the season.  DAL is 25th rushing the ball and NYG are 7th stopping it.  

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys: NYG +3.5
The NYG travel to DAL on Monday night for a battle in the NFC East.   NY are currently tied for first place while DAL is in survival mode.  The Cowboys are already the early trendy pick.  Many people still believe they are a top team in the NFL and will eventually turn it around.  They are also playing at home in a desperate situation so I expect even further action on their side as the week plays out.  On many levels I agree with this line of thinking.  DAL rank near the top of the league in many categories and some say they have just been on the negative side of variance so far.  This is where I disagree.  Losing a game or two from a penalty, turnover, or freak play is one thing, but when it happens almost every game it's a trend.  Penalties and turnovers aren't happenstance with them, it's part of who they are.  

That's not the only reason I like NY in this game.  In the categories that DAL is ranked high, NY are equally high on the other side of the ball.  These teams matchup close to each other across the board.   In fact, NY actually come out on top with an edge because they hold a considerable advantage stopping the run.  This will put even more pressure on Romo to step up and win this game.  Let it be known that I'm not a fan of Romo and won't be until he proves he can consistently win when it's all on the line.  His history in clutch situations is well-documented and he always finds a way to beat himself.  Last week against MIN was another perfect example.  His two interceptions led to 10 points for MIN and ultimately cost his team the win in a pressure-packed game.  Now he must put everything behind him and try to come up with a good performance under the lights in prime-time with their season on the line.  I certainly don't like his chances.  If NY have a good start they will take the crowd right out of the game and the fans will get restless with the home team.  This is also a divisional game so there won't be any surprises.  NY will have little trouble getting up for this one because they know the importance of coming away with a victory.  They will be able to play loose care-free ball knowing that DAL is carrying Mt Everest on their backs.  I have this game as a pick em which is why I love the +3.5.  Having the hook in a matchup like this is great value.  Prediction: Bank NYG +3.5.
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