Sunday, October 10, 2010

The NFL continues to wreak havoc on those looking for an edge ATS.  What looked to be a great week turned sour as I lost 4 games on the final play of the game.  I finished the week at 4-5 after meaningless pick-six cost me the ARI/NO under, two missed FGs cost me the GB game, and SD choked on the road again despite Rivers throwing for 400 yards a game.  At the end of the day it wasn't a disaster, but with a few breaks it could have been a monster day.

However, one look around the capping world and a 4-5 week looks like sunshine by comparison.  The public continues to get crushed this year as they finished the day 4-8 with the night game to go.  Sharps didn't do too good either.  The Hilton consensus picks went 1-3 and defending champ Steve Fezzik went 0-4.  Both have SF -3 tonight, but my system doesn't show an edge for SF.

If anything I'd have a small lean on PHI +3.5 if you can find the hook.  SF will rely almost entirely on Gore and look for Davis over the middle, but they will have to be more disciplined to stay out of their own way.  Currently they are near the bottom of the league in penalties and turnovers.   PHI will rally around Kolb and I expect this to be a close one.

I might have a play for Monday night posted tomorrow.   I'll have a full review of the week and some early week 6 picks posted soon.

UPDATE: IND -3 is on the card for week 6 with analysis and more picks up soon.   This line might come out at -2.5 tomorrow so shop around.   Nice win for the Eagles as SF continued their self-defeating play.  Congrats to all who played the lean.