Monday, October 11, 2010

Market Watch
Public ATS: 28-46-3
Hilton Contest Consensus Picks: 11-13-1
Back-to-back Hilton Champ Steve Fezzik: 10-14-1

Chances are if you have consistently wagered ATS this season you will be familiar with the numbers in the market watch.   What looked to be a great week for me turned sour as I lost 4 games on the final play of the game.  Being on the right side of a line seems to mean little this season as variance has reigned king.  Once again things were ugly for the public as they went 4-10 ATS.  Hilton consensus picks went 1-4, and Steve Fezzik went a whopping 0-5. 

Heading into week 6 there will be very few secrets.  The sharps will wisen up and fall more in line with Vegas now that everyone have the same information and people will need to dig a little deeper to find an edge.   My system plays have already began to identify significant discrepancies now that there are 5 weeks of stats in the books.   There are a few factors left to check into, but the early numbers for week 6 show that Vegas is giving a lot of favorites inflated lines.  This is not a surprise, but what is different is how many games and how many points are being inflated.  The public continue to take these favorites despite the adjusted lines and until they begin to go with the underdogs Vegas will have no reason to change things.  

My only early pick for week 6 is IND -3.   I'll have analysis up soon along with some more picks during the week.