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Monday, October 11, 2010

Week 5 NFL Predictions: Monday Night Football Edition

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets: MIN +4.5 and MIN +10.5 & OVER 32.5 Teaser

How much is Randy Moss worth?  The public has already overvalued him because the majority of the bets were on NY before the trade.  The Jets have won three in a row and are playing at home.  Now that Moss is a member of the purple and gold the public is split on this one.  The sharps were mostly on MIN +4 even before the trade so we know what they thought of the move.

The biggest benefit of the Moss trade will be Peterson. Those wanting to stack 8 in the box will think twice leaving Moss on an island. It will also benefit Harvin in the same way it benefited Welker. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits some big plays with soft coverage underneath. If Revis covers Moss keep in mind he'll be going up and down the field all night so don't be shocked if Revis comes out of this game due to his hamstring. Also consider that Favre will force throws to Moss a number of times. A team that throws down field a lot creates a lot of completions/interceptions/pass interference outcomes. Both teams are also averaging 29 points combined from drives of 60+ yards which is well above the league average and bodes well for the teased over.  I usually never tease totals due to the variance seen with points, but this game offers an exception.

Matchup-wise, I have the game capped at a PK with the only advantage going to NY for home field advantage.  This was the same situation I had last night for the PHI/SF game and that lean turned out good.   MIN will have a slight advantage with pass defense, but they also haven't been getting to the QB as much as last season.  NY also ranks near the bottom of the league in penalties which is likely due to the aggressive tone set by coach Ryan.  MIN have not been good with turnover differential and that may or may not improve with Moss in the mix.  Favre is likely to be more patient with better receiver options, but he'll also be throwing up 50/50 balls to Moss.  I'm still high on NY for the season, but much like week one I don't think they matchup as favorably in this one.  Predicton: Bank MIN +4.5 and MIN 10.5/OVER 32.5.
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