Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Patriots -3, Ravens -.5, Bengals +7

Many professionals handicappers will tell you to NEVER cross 0 when playing a teaser.  If you do, you will immediately lose EV+ value.   For the most part I agree with this logic because you never want to throw away value for nothing in return, but there are always exceptions to the rule.   If there is an early line that comes out soft and teasing it up or down crosses critical numbers, the value will still be there.

In this 3 team 10 point teaser, CIN crosses 0 to bring the line up to +7 which is more than enough points to cover against a lowly CAR team starting a rookie QB.   NE may or may not drop to -12.5 during the week, but given the heavy action on NE I doubt you will see -12.5 unless there is some reverse line movement.   Either way, anyone who believes NE won't win by at least 4 points is not paying attention to what's going on.  BUF made a change at QB, but this will make next to no difference in how good their offense is.  NE might have questions with CB depth and their pass rush, but playing the worst offense in the NFL will nullify that. Both BAL and NE are coming off tough road losses they believe they should have won.  If either team would have come away with a victory there would have been the chance that they came home feeling good about themselves and taken CLE and BUF a little bit more lightly.  I love the bounce back factor for both teams playing at home against horrific teams.  Prediction: Bank NE -3, BAL -.5, CIN +7.