Friday, September 24, 2010

Detroit Lions +18 & Indianapolis Colts PK

I already had a strong lean on DET +12, but teasing it up to +18 is like printing money.   I love them in the underdog role this week for many reasons.   Favre is obviously not on the same page with his receivers, he's forcing throws again, and he just might get knocked out of this game.  DET's pass rush is lethal at the moment and Favre will have to do a lot of three-step drops and hand-offs to AP to stay alive.   Vanden Bosche is leading the league with 17 solo tackles and is the heartbeat of that defense.  They might have a horrible back seven, but it will get a little better when Levy returns at MLB.   Even if MIN get a two or three score lead in this game, I like DET to cover in the 4th quarter because they are a young and hungry team who think they are competitive.  They are looking to get better and they can move the ball in garbage time.  If the NFL had a better rule for what is a catch in this league, they would be 1-1 and be taken a whole lot more seriously.  DET has also been better than MIN at sustaining long drives and getting points off of them.   MIN failed to get Vincent Jackson and settled for career journeyman Hank Baskett instead. All of this and I haven't even mentioned the league's standout rookie Best.  See my write-up on the IND/DEN game for more on this pick, but Moreno has been ruled out, their secondary is banged up, and they can't rush the passer.  Prediction: Bank DET +18 & IND PK.