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Friday, September 24, 2010

Week 3 NFL Predictions: September 26, 2010

Two totals plays added to the list.  Check here for the latest odds.

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens: UNDER 37

This game has many of the factors I like when playing an under.  Both offenses have been bad so far this year.  BAL has played two good defenses, but something isn't right when Flacco is throwing 4 INTs in a game.  He isn't entirely on the same page with his receivers yet.  The offense has been able to put together some nice drives this year, but have not come away with enough points from them.  They should have an easier time against CLE, but I expect them to dominate the game and use the run a lot once they get the lead.   That should keep the clock moving and keep the points down.

I also like the fact that CLE could get shut out this game.  They have only managed 14 points a game against bad teams.  Now they must travel on the road against an angry BAL defense.   The only thing they have going for them is that it's a divisional game.   Wallace will be starting and he does not have the kind of chemistry with his teammates that he would like.  It's still early in the year and they will struggle to put up points.   I like the total at the critical number 37 and would have reservations playing it at anything lower.   Weather could also be a factor in this game.  Prediction: Bank UNDER 37.

Oakland Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals: UNDER 39.5

The beauty of this game is that both teams have defenses that are worse against the run than the pass.   Who knows if that's how it will play out as the year goes on, but for this game look for each team to keep it on the ground.   This is great news because it not only keeps the clock moving, but it will result in long drives that should stall more times than not.  Both of these offenses are very bad.   OAK has changed QB's very early in the season and heres a newsflash - Gradkowski is not Peyton Manning.   He's looked ok at times under center, but he's not a big play guy that will be throwing it down the field every other play.  

ARI's QB situation is just as bad, if not worse.  They had no long drives against ATL and did nothing but 1 long play in garbage time.   They had 4 turnovers against a crappy STL team and still only managed 17 points.  Fitzgerald has big play capability, but Anderson cannot find him down the field.  The chances that at least one of these offenses sputters on Sunday is high.  Will the other offense be able to pick up their slack and put this game over 39.5 points?  That's asking a lot.  Prediction: Bank UNDER 39.5. 
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