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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Week 2 NFL Predictions: The Pick 6 Player Props of the Week Part I

Here is a little bit of fun for those that like a little bit of extra action on the games.  I would not wager more than a half unit on any of these because at the end of the day they are just game props.  With that said, let's take a look at the game props I like for week 2.

UPDATE: Some of these props have been taken down.  This is another example of why it pays to get in on the soft lines early.  This applies to props and games.

Sean Hill 195.5 Passing Yards - UNDER

UPDATE: This prop is now 190.5.

In case people haven't heard, PHI has a pretty solid defense.  Last week I played the UNDER for Rodger's passing yards and hit pretty easily.   I might have even taken this prop with Stafford starting, but Hill is a backup quarterback for a reason.   He might have the weapons, but he'll be hard pressed to approach 200 yards against this blitz-happy defense.  He'll also be concerned about Samuel taking a couple of his throws the other way.  Prediction: Bank UNDER.

Michael Vick 245.5 Passing Yards - UNDER

UPDATE: This prop has been brought down to 220.5 yards.

I'm not sure what the books are seeing in Mike Vick that I do not.  The last time I checked he's still a running quarterback.   Andy Reid will definitely want him to play a bit more in the pocket, but asking him to throw for 250 passing yards is a bit of a reach.   Prediction: Bank UNDER.

Michael Vick 35.5 Rushing Yards - OVER

UPDATE #2: This prop is now 42.5 yards.

With the starting center on injured reserve, Vick will have even more reason to run on Sunday.  He's anxious to show people he's still got game and 35.5 rushing yards is LOW for a prop.   He is also a long ways away from becoming an established pocket passer.   He'll go through one or two reads 90% of the time and if he doesn't like what he sees he'll take off.  Last week he showed that he has recaptured some of the speed from Atlanta and turned the corner a number of times on defenders. This is a very generous number.   Prediction: Bank OVER.

Jimmy Clausen 175.5 Passing Yards - UNDER

UPDATE: Matt Moore is now listed as 'probable' so this prop has been taken off the board.

Did anyone see Clausen in the preseason?  It wasn't a pretty sight.   He didn't lead the Panthers to a single TD drive in any of the game action he saw.  He also has a toe injury that will be nagging him for the entire season.  Matt Moore suffered a "mild" concussion and there's still a chance he plays, but given all the attention that concussions have got in week 1 I'd be a bit surprised if he gets the start.  However, as of right now the Panthers giving everyone the impression he'll play.  As bad as Moore has been, they would rather play him than go with Clausen this early in the season.   Expect a lot of runs and max protection schemes on Sunday - especially since Otah is no closer to returning.   If Clausen does start, he won't feel good about Moore taking some first team reps from him this week either.  Prediction: Bank UNDER.

Times Archie Manning is shown on TV on Sunday night - OVER 1.5

UPDATE: Betting for this prop is also no longer available.  

Ok so this is an ex-player, but make no mistake about it, he will definitely see air-time more than once on Sunday Night Football.  The Eli Bowl is being heavily advertised by NBC and you can count on them cutting to Archie a few times after either brother makes a big play or mistake.   They will also cut to him if the game is still undecided in the 4th quarter.   This is one of the easiest props of the week.   Prediction: Bank OVER 1.5.

L.T. vs Shonn Greene: L.T. +10.5

Greene will get more than the 5 carries he got against the Ravens when they square off with the Patriots on Sunday.  However, Greene will be running with the conscious awareness of holding onto the ball.  If he slips up again he'll be benched for the 2nd game in a row.  It's already been an issue during preseason, too.  L.T. didn't light the world on fire in week 1, but he did run well enough to put up some decent numbers.  He has already been given more trust by coach Ryan and with the bonus 10.5 yards, I don't see any reason to pass on this prop.  I'm rolling with LT until I see a reason to think otherwise.   Prediction: Bank L.T. +10.5
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ML: 536-540 (+146.57u)
Regulation: 376-338 (+112.46u)
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Player Props: 167-106-24 (+62.22u)
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51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

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1-3 (+5u)

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