Wednesday, August 11, 2010

August 12th, 2010

All of my preseason picks are only two unit plays.   There are good plays to be found, but due to the volatile nature that is the NFL preseason one must tread a bit more carefully.   At the same time, preseason is when there is a lot less action on the games and odds-makers have a much more difficult time finding the right lines. 

A number of key factors come into play such as coaching philosophy, depth and competition at those spots, quality of the backup quarterbacks, up-to-the-minute game news, statistical trends, etc.

  • New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots - NO +1.5
Belichick is not interested in preseason results and it shows as they have not done well versus the spread early in the preseason over the last few years.   Brady won't play much and after him there isn't anything worth mentioning here.  The Super Bowl champs will continue their success - even if it is the preseason.  Prediction: Bank NO +1.5.

  •  Carolina Panthers vs Baltimore Ravens - BAL -3.5 and UNDER (34)
"There are probably 20-something guys I've never seen take a snap in NFL football," Fox said Wednesday.   Indeed, four different quarterbacks will see action vs the Ravens, but at least they'll be facing a depleted secondary.   The panthers also left 11 other players at home including three starters (Gamble, Smith, and Stewart).   The Ravens have traditionally been low-scoring in the preseason, while CAR has been bad against the spread.   I don't see any reason why those trends won't continue now.  Prediction: Bank the UNDER and BAL -3.5