Monday, February 3, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014: Season Review

The 2013/2014 is officially in the books and the Seattle Seahawks take home the big prize. I certainly didn't expect a blowout, but it wasn't all that surprising either.

Harvin provided huge plays, the defense did what it did all year, and the offense took advantage of the mismatches. I doubt that Seattle will be as healthy next post-season, but they have all the pieces to contend for the foreseeable future.

It was great to end the year on a high note going 7-3-1 ATS in the playoffs (20-7-2 over the final 9 weeks). I was on the wrong side of too many close decisions during the regular season, but it was still a 4th straight profitable year overall.

I'd like to give a big thanks to those who donated to the tip jar, or opened an account through one of my affiliate links. I write this blog primarily as a hobby, so I really appreciate it anytime someone gives back.

In the meantime, I'll be continuing over on my NHL blog for the remainder of the season. Advanced stats have finally progressed to the point where it can be applied to hockey, and the results have been incredible so far.

If that sport isn't for you, I'll see you again in the summer when the NFL picks back up in July.

Enjoy the offseason!

Friday, January 31, 2014

NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Predictions 2014: Broncos vs Seahawks

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks: SEA +3 (Bovada)

Market Watch

The most talked about point spread on the planet was released immediately after the Seattle Seahawks eliminated the San Francisco 49ers, and most sportsbooks opened the game as a 'pick em'.  Within minutes a surge of bets came flying in on the Broncos and it hasn't really slowed down since.

Many people are wondering whether or not that early money was "sharp" money, but the answer is, not necessarily.  The Super Bowl is the most bet game in football by a country mile, which means a lot of big bets come in from casual bettors. This is also reflected in the current bet tracking numbers, as 72 percent of all bets are on Denver so far.

With all this action sportsbooks have moved the line in favor of the Broncos. Most have it at -2 or -2.5, but some square shops are hanging -3 to entice bets on the Seahawks. Therefore, no matter which side you like, you should be able to get the best line available.

From my analysis, Seattle is the team that should be slightly favored.

When the Broncos have the ball

Can Peyton Manning be stopped?

When the Seahawks have the ball

Can the Seahawks offense take advantage?

Percy Harvin is the x-factor

Bottom Line

Games are not played on paper, and we know that variance makes anything possible in any given game, but there's no question that the Seahawks are the more balanced (and healthier) overall team. The Broncos offense might be incredible, but if there is any defense in the league that can limit their damage, it's Seattle's. The Seahawks also have a decisive advantage against an inferior Broncos defense.

What it all adds up to some value on Seattle, not only with the point spread, but also to win the game straight up. The majority of people might disagree, but the stage is set for the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. The only question that remains is whether they step up and seize the moment. I think they can, and they're my pick to come out on top this Sunday.

NFL Pick: SEA +3.