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Sunday, September 28, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 5 Picks

Sunday's games are in the books and it was another winning week for the favorites. They went 7-6 ATS, but dogs are still slightly ahead 32-28-1 overall. Scoring was through the roof this week as overs won for the second week in a row going 9-4, and now lead 32-29 on the season.

The LVH Supercontest consensus picks went 3-2, and improved to 13-7 on the season. The Football Outsiders ATS picks went an abysmal 2-10-1 in Week 4. On the season they now sit 21-38-2.  I expect them to turn it around now that the stats are building up, but we'll see. They have great analysis, but iffy betting knowledge. In fact ...

UPDATE: My Week 4 started off strong, but finished 3-3 ATS. Ironically, the Falcons were one of the non-covers - a team that everybody was on. The line got steamed up from -3 to -5.5 on gameday, but ya gotta give credit to Teddy Bridgewater. They had a great game plan for him and he didn't look out of a place at all. I have no explanation for whatsoever for the Saints loss. It was the most contested poll vote of the week, so props to everyone who backed the Cowboys. I'm still not sure what to make of their defense, but so far they are proving a lot of people wrong. Finally, the Patriots got pasted on MNF. Their poor defensive play surprised me a lot more than their struggles on offense.

Thankfully, I survived the slaughter of September, and it's almost time to start incorporating some advanced stats. Teasers haven't gone as expected, but I'm not worried about those at all. It's just a matter of time before they start cashing.

Early lines are out for Week 5, and I'll be adding picks over the coming days. Refresh this post for all the updates throughout the week.

Survivor Pick

Surprisingly, the Redskins were the 2nd most popular survivor pick in Week 4. That didn't end so well, but even more surprising was the Steelers gift-wrapping a win to the Bucs. The Chargers and Colts took care of business.

Week 5: pending

Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears

Read more:

Stanley Cup Picks

NHL Season Team Props