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Sunday, October 19, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 8 Picks

Peyton Manning put on a record setting show as Week 7 is almost done. Underdogs came out on top for the first time since Week 2, going 8-6 ATS. For the year, favorites have a slight lead 52-50-2.

Around town, Football Outsiders continued to lose going 6-8 ATS, now 40-60-1 on the season. Las Vegas SuperContest top 5 consensus picks went 3-2 ATS, improving to 20-15 on the year.

Last week I tweeted out the season records from "Pros & Joes" according to Jay Fornegay and Todd Furhman. Each week they say who the "sharps" like and who the "public" are backing. Through 8 weeks the reports from Fuhrman are: pros 21-19-2, joes 17-17-2.  Fornegay: pros 16-21-1, joes: 23-19-2.

Take these with a big grain of salt though. We already know who the public like thanks to services like Sports Insights, and we know where the sharp money is going by monitoring opening/closing line movement. I also don't think there is a big gap between these groups anymore, but that's a rant for another day.

My picks were a mixed bag. ATS I went 1-3, but they were a lot closer than the record suggests. The Andy Reid post-bye streak rolled on as KC were fully deserving of that win and cover.  I expected a close affair between the Saints/Lions, but wound up on the wrong side of it. Finally, the Giants couldn't stay within a TD of the Cowboys as Dallas kicked a late insurance FG to seal the deal. On the bright side, both teasers cashed fairly easily as the Packers, Ravens, and Broncos won huge. Sometimes I think I should just play every teaser team ATS too.

We're almost at the midway point of the season, and opening Week 8 lines are already up. Check back throughout the week for all the updates.

Survivor Pick

The three main picks receiving votes in Week 7 were the Patriots, Seahawks, and "Other", which I assume meant the Cowboys. If you hitched your wagon to Seattle, my condolences. It looked like they were going to pull it out, but a brave fake punt and iffy call by the ref did them in.

Week 8: pending

Week 7: Patriots
Week 6: Broncos
Week 5: Saints
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears