The LVH Supercontest consensus picks went 3-2, and improved to 13-7 on the season. The Football Outsiders ATS picks went an abysmal 2-10-1 in Week 4. On the season they now sit 21-38-2. I expect them to turn it around now that the stats are building up, but we'll see. They have great analysis, but iffy betting knowledge. In fact ...
Ouch: If you Kelly bet this year's @fboutsiders picks with an initial $1M bankroll (and unlimited credit), you'd now be down $3.3 million.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) September 29, 2014
UPDATE: My Week 4 started off strong, but finished 3-3 ATS. Ironically, the Falcons were one of the non-covers - a team that everybody was on. The line got steamed up from -3 to -5.5 on gameday, but ya gotta give credit to Teddy Bridgewater. They had a great game plan for him and he didn't look out of a place at all. I have no explanation for whatsoever for the Saints loss. It was the most contested poll vote of the week, so props to everyone who backed the Cowboys. I'm still not sure what to make of their defense, but so far they are proving a lot of people wrong. Finally, the Patriots got pasted on MNF. Their poor defensive play surprised me a lot more than their struggles on offense.
Thankfully, I survived the slaughter of September, and it's almost time to start incorporating some advanced stats. Teasers haven't gone as expected, but I'm not worried about those at all. It's just a matter of time before they start cashing.
Early lines are out for Week 5, and I'll be adding picks over the coming days. Refresh this post for all the updates throughout the week.
Week 5: pending
Week 4: Chargers
Week 3: Colts
Week 2: Packers
Week 1: Bears
Stanley Cup Picks
NHL Season Team Props